Thu, 03th of July, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The Greenback slumped against Euro yesterday. EURUSD topped at 1.5890 and closed at 1.5889. We have a valid bullish channel on hourly chart. My model is long targeting 1.5950. Immediate support is seen at 1.5850. CCI in overbought area on daily chart so watch out for a downside risk. Only use a tight money management at this phase. Eyes on US Non Farm Payroll data today.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5814
• S2= 1.5739
• S3= 1.5701
• R1= 1.5927
• R2= 1.5965
• R3= 1.6040

GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday the GBPUSD attempted to go lower but further downside movement was rejected. The pair bottomed at 1.9844 but closed higher at 1.9935. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.9890 followed by 1.9844 (yesterday’s low). CCI about to cross 100 line down on daily chart. Eyes on US Non Farm Payroll data today.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.9861
• S2= 1.9788
• S3= 1.9732
• R1= 1.9990
• R2= 2.0046
• R3= 2.0119

USDJPY Outlook
Yesterday USDJPY made an indecisive movement. Further upside movement was rejected. The pair topped at 106.77 but closed lower at 105.83. From a bigger view, as long as the pair stay above key level 105.50, the bullish scenario is still intact. My model for today is mixed with downside bias as CCI about to cross -100 line down on daily chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 105.47
• S2= 105.12
• S3= 104.47
• R1= 106.47
• R2= 107.12
• R3= 107.47

USDCHF Outlook
Yesterday the Swiss Franc was traded stronger against US Dollar. The USDCHF bottomed at 1.0130 and closed at 1.0132. My model is short, targeting 1.0025. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0165. CCI already in oversold area on daily chart so watch out for an upside pullback. Use only tight money management at this phase.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0097
• S2= 1.0063
• S3= 0.9996
• R1= 1.0198
• R2= 1.0265
• R3= 1.0299

Have a great day!

Hi there fellow traders!

The US session was uneventful as all market participants now await the ECB’s rate announcement tomorrow as well as the US unemployment figure later tomorrow in the US session. The EUR is still situated within a bullish probability and we will continue taking long trades in the Eurozone session tomorrow as well

Herewith is my daily video recap for July 2, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/02-july-probability-studies-watch-eur-ppi-today/

The Greenback is still range bound against various majors as market participants await the US unemployment figure on Thursday. But most importantly, the Eurozone PPI figure, a serious gauge on inflation, will be released at 09:00GMT today. Consensus calls for a jump from 6.1% to 6.7% and anything higher would cause the EUR to strengthen amidst the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday. Tighten your buckles and hold on tight!

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. The sideways Current Trend resistance (blue line) at 1.5830 has proven formidable as price could not violate this resistance level to the upside yet. Although we have a bullish probability, we would wait for price to trend at least above 1.5830/40 before deeming the EUR/USD suitable for long trades. Keep an eye on the PPI figure in the Eurozone today as we can either see price surge past 1.5830 or decline. Let’s wait for the break..

GBP/USD - No Trade Zone. Price is still range bound between 2.000 and 1.9885. Although the bullish 60minute trend has been violated, we could not see price take out additional lows to confirm a new bearish probability. If price takes out the 2.000 level we will have a suitable bullish trading condition once again

USD/CHF - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Interesting to see that we have a bullish 60minute trend at this stage but the condition is far from tradeable as price must first move above the very significant resistance at 1.0240 before we will have a bullish trading condition. On the other hand, if the support of 1.0140 is violated and confirmed, we will have a continuation of the previous bearish trading condition.

USD/JPY - No Trade Zone. Price has tested the confluence of levels between 105.00 and 105.30 a couple of times already and any break below would certainly give us a suitable bearish trading condition. We can also see that the bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside but the violation has not been confirmed as yet. In fact, price is consolidating in a triangular formation at this stage and any breaks to the upside will give us a new bullish 60minute trend with a possible bullish trading condition as well. Watch this space!

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

Herewith is my daily recap for July 1, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/01-july-eurusd-probability-study-runup-to-ecb-and-us-unemployment/

We had an interesting start to the week as the EUR failed to take out new highs after Eurozone inflation in the form of CPI surged to 4% which was higher than the 3.9% consensus expectation. In fact, price declined below the significant 1.5764 support which is the violated upper trendline of the falling wedge price pattern we can see on the daily charts. It is very interesting to see how yet another significant daily price pattern has failed.

Today we have UK PMI, Eurozone PMI and Eurozone Unemployment with US ISM and Construction Spending thrown in the mix. With the ECB deciding on Interest rates and US Unemployment on Thursday, we can expect a volatile week ahead, especially now that Trichet is more concerned about inflation than anything else.. (rate hike? hint hint)

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone. On the 1 hour chart we can see a head and shoulders pattern which signals bearishness but it is still in the developing stage. If price stays below the 1.5764 support (violated wedge upper resistance line) then we will have a possible bearish probability. Any new-found bullishness from a market rhythm perspective will definitely give us a bullish perspective once again. At this stage we stand back and wait for the break..

GBP/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. As soon as price moves above the 1.9965 high of yesterday we will see a continuation of the previous bullish trading condition and we will also then adjust the 60minute trend to reflect the low of 1.9931. The low of 1.9877 has to be taken out if we want to see a bearish probability. In a nutshell, the Cable is consolidating between the latter mentioned levels and therefore the no trade zone

USD/CHF - No Trade Zone. The more active bearish 60minute trend we identified yesterday has been violated to the upside and we have a brief no trade zone on our hands. Price found significant resistance at the violated bullish Major Trend support (red line which is now resistance) and if price continues to take out new lows, we will adjust the 60minute trend to reflect the high of 1.0225 and a new bearish trading condition will then present itself

USD/JPY - No Trade Zone. The bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside as price bounced on the new Major Trend Support (red line) and the violation is in the process of being confirmed. Keep and eye out for the important 105.00 level as it resembles a confluence of previous and current support levels. Any new higher troughs on the 1 hour chart will give us a new bullish 60minute trend and a bullish probability but nothing is confirmed as yet and if the current bearish movement we are seeing now is sustained, we will be forced to adjust the 60minute trend by honoring the recent 106.38 high which will place the JPY in a bearish trading condition once again

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

Tue, 01th of July, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The Greenback recovered against Euro yesterday as I had expected. Today I am expecting further downside correction. My model is short, targeting 1.5650. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5770. CCI in overbought area and about to cross 100 line down.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5711
• S2= 1.5668
• S3= 1.5606
• R1= 1.5816
• R2= 1.5878
• R3= 1.5921

GBPUSD Outlook
The Greenback made a minor recovery against Sterling yesterday. My hourly bullish channel has violated to the downside. My model goes short targeting 1.9800. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.9950. CCI in overbought area and heading down.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.9888
• S2= 1.9841
• S3= 1.9802
• R1= 1.9974
• R2= 2.0013
• R3= 2.0060

USDJPY Outlook
Yesterday USDJPY hit my short target at 105.10, even further, bottomed at 104.98. However, after hit yesterday’s low, the pair bounce back to the upside and closed at 106.07. This downside rejection could be the end of correctional move of bullish scenario which had started on 18/03/2008. The pair need to stay above 105.50 in order to keep the bullish scenario intact. My model is mixed with upside bias. Immediate support is seen at 105.90. Initial resistance at 106.70.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 105.21
• S2= 104.35
• S3= 103.73
• R1= 106.69
• R2= 107.31
• R3= 108.17

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF made a minor correctional movement yesterday. I am not surprised as the pair is already in oversold area. My model is mixed with upside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.0165. Initial resistance at 1.0265. CCI in oversold area on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0151
• S2= 1.0096
• S3= 1.0064
• R1= 1.0238
• R2= 1.0270
• R3= 1.0325

Have a great day!

Herewith is my daily recap for June 30, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/30-june-eurusd-probability-study-eurozone-cpi-eyed-today/

Today we have Eurozone inflation figures in the form of CPI at 09:00GMT. Consensus calls for a rise to 3.9% from 3.6%. Should inflation be higher than the previous 3.6% or even higher than consensus, we can expect another surge in the EUR/USD as this figure will certainly confirm Trichet’s ambitions of raising interest rates. Trichet is clearly the winner in this match as the Fed’s Bernanke shows no interest in raising rates.

The high price of oil and rising unemployment and the looming second wave of the credit crunch does not spell moonshine and roses for the US economy.

Herewith the Probability Studies for today:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Price has clearly violated the bearish current trend resistance (blue line) which resembles a falling wedge upper line on the daily chart. This pattern has now signalled a continuation of the preceding bullish daily trend with a possibility of price reaching 1.6400. Nevertheless, now that price has breached the consolidation pattern, we can expect a trending market for weeks to come. From an intraday probability study point of view, we would first wait for the 1 hour stochastic to cross bullish before we’ll have a suitable bullish trading condition

Have a look at the wedge on the Daily Chart attached as well:

We will have an interesting week with the US Unemployment data on Fiday the cherry on the cake..

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other major pairs such as the GBP and JPY crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

Mon, 30th of June, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD still continued it’s bullish momentum on Friday, but with less power. The pair topped and closed at 1.5791 and bottomed at 1.5719. I am expecting a consolidation movement to the downside as we see many resistance at 1.5800 area and the price is already in overbought area on daily chart. My model is mixed with no trading zone. Immediate support seen at 1.5730. Initial resistance at 1.5850.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5743
• S2= 1.5695
• S3= 1.5671
• R1= 1.5815
• R2= 1.5839
• R3= 1.5887

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD hit my long target at 1.9950 on Friday, topped at 1.9952. My model remains long, targeting 2.0030. CCI already in overbought area on daily chart, so watch out for a minor downside pullback. Immediate support is seen at 1.9890. Only use tight money management at this phase. Wait for confirmation on your indicator/oscillator to find long position.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.9850
• S2= 1.9752
• S3= 1.9701
• R1= 1.9999
• R2= 2.0050
• R3= 2.0148

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY hit my short target at 106.30, even further, bottomed at 105.86. My model remains short, targeting 105.10. Immediate resistance is seen at 106.60. CCI in neutral area on daily chart. We know that USDJPY is still in bullish outlook on bigger time frame, so only use tight money management at this phase.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 105.58
• S2= 105.05
• S3= 104.24
• R1= 106.92
• R2= 107.73
• R3= 108.26

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF continued it’s bearish momentum on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.0164, 13 pips higher from my short target at 1.0151. CCI already in extreme oversold area. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.0151. Initial resistance seen at 1.0265. Expect for an upside correctional movement today.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0142
• S2= 1.0101
• S3= 1.0039
• R1= 1.0245
• R2= 1.0307
• R3= 1.0348

Have a great day!

Although price has consolidated for most of the Asian session, our weakening dollar bias is still in play. High oil and no signs of a Fed bailout sent the Dow down 350 points on risk aversion. We also saw Japan’s CPI rocket to 1.5% signaling higher inflation which means higher interest rates. Therefore we can expect some carry trade unwinding.

On the economic front today we have UK GDP and then US PCE core and University of Michigan survey. The dollar is weakening at a fast pace but we can see how the bucky is finding moderate support at these levels. Heading to the weekend we will certainly look at fundamentals but still honor our Probability Studies

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. The bullish 60minute trend is still intact, therefore the bullish probability. The 1 hour indicators are bearish and thus we have a no trade zone and even if these 1 hour indicators cross bullish then price has to violate the bearish Current Trend resistance (Blue line at 1.5773) before we can resume all bullish entries

USD/CHF - No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Price violated the Major Trend support (red line at 1.0265) and the bearish trading condition ensued. Price has since then pulled back a bit to find major resistance at the violated Major trend support which confirms the violation. The previous bearish 60minute trend’s range was a bit large and we identified a new, more active 60minute trend. Nevertheless, the probability remains bearish and as soon as the 1 hour Stochastic cross bearish we will have a suitable bearish trading condition once again

GBP/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. The bullish probability is definitely intact and as long as the 60minute trend remains bullish and the 1 hour indicators cross bullish then the trading condition will come into play again

USD/JPY - No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Price is converging with the bullish Current Trend support line (blue line at 106.50) and we would therefore wait for this low to be taken out before trading short again. Nevertheless, the probability is still bearish with a no trade zone

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades