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Filed under: Probability Studies | 07/02/08 06:16am UTC
jkriek

02 July Probability Studies - Watch EUR PPI today

The Greenback is still range bound against various majors as market participants await the US unemployment figure on Thursday. But most importantly, the Eurozone PPI figure, a serious gauge on inflation, will be released at 09:00GMT today. Consensus calls for a jump from 6.1% to 6.7% and anything higher would cause the EUR to strengthen amidst the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday. Tighten your buckles and hold on tight!

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. The sideways Current Trend resistance (blue line) at 1.5830 has proven formidable as price could not violate this resistance level to the upside yet. Although we have a bullish probability, we would wait for price to trend at least above 1.5830/40 before deeming the EUR/USD suitable for long trades. Keep an eye on the PPI figure in the Eurozone today as we can either see price surge past 1.5830 or decline. Let’s wait for the break..

GBP/USD - No Trade Zone. Price is still range bound between 2.000 and 1.9885. Although the bullish 60minute trend has been violated, we could not see price take out additional lows to confirm a new bearish probability. If price takes out the 2.000 level we will have a suitable bullish trading condition once again

USD/CHF - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Interesting to see that we have a bullish 60minute trend at this stage but the condition is far from tradeable as price must first move above the very significant resistance at 1.0240 before we will have a bullish trading condition. On the other hand, if the support of 1.0140 is violated and confirmed, we will have a continuation of the previous bearish trading condition.


USD/JPY - No Trade Zone. Price has tested the confluence of levels between 105.00 and 105.30 a couple of times already and any break below would certainly give us a suitable bearish trading condition. We can also see that the bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside but the violation has not been confirmed as yet. In fact, price is consolidating in a triangular formation at this stage and any breaks to the upside will give us a new bullish 60minute trend with a possible bullish trading condition as well. Watch this space!

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

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