Retail Sales in Euroland Key Today

While comments from members of the FED sent the greenback higher overnight, the fundamentals which will be released in the European session will give us an indication of what to expect from the ECB and BoE tomorrow.

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD – Bearish Probability. We adjusted the trendlines of the bearish Current Trend to reflect the most active underlying trend, therefore we have to honor the high of 1.5594 we saw yesterday. Nevertheless, the bullish 60minute trend has again been violated to the downside and price is in the process of confirming the violation. As soon as market rhythm starts to trend lower it will force the hourly indicators to cross bearish as well. If the latter scenario materialise, we should have a suitable bearish trading condition on our hands

USD/JPY – Bullish Trading Condition. The previous bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside and we have already identified the new bullish 60minute trend. The hourly indicators are bullish, therefore the great bullish trading condition

GBP/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Although the 60minute trend is bearish, the indicators are bullish and price is now converging with the bearish 60minute trend resistance line. Should price bounce here and continue bearish, a suitable condition might present itself

GBP/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. The bullish Current trend (blue line) support has been violated and as soon as price is trending below at least 1.9620, we will have a closer look at possible bearish trades. Also note that price can be volatile ahead of the BoE decision

EUR/JPY – Bullish Trading Condition. We identified a more active 60minute trend and accompanied by bullish hourly indicators, places this one in a suitable bullish trading condition

EUR/GBP – Bullish Trading Condition. We identified a more active 60minute trend and accompanied by bullish hourly indicators places this one in a suitable bullish trading condition. Just make a note of the bearish Current Trend resistance line (blue line at 0.7900) as it is significant.

EUR/CHF – Bullish Probability. Although market rhythm is clearly consolidating, we have a bullish 60minute trend accompanied by bullish hourly indicators. Wait for market rhythm to start trending higher and Bob’s your Uncle!

USD/CHF – Bearish Probability. This one is not suitable for trading at the moment even though we can clearly see how the bullish 60minute trend has been violated to the downside and the hourly indicators are bearish. We have to wait for al least the 1.0520 low to be taken out to actually confirm a bearish market rhythm before we will have a closer look

USD/CAD – Bearish Trading Condition. AT LAST! The bullish Major Trend support line (orange line) has been violated to the downside significantly and now we have a beautiful bearish trading condition on our hands which is confirmed with the bearish hourly indicators. (Have a look at the stochastic, it gave us a bearish cross within an overbought condition) The only concern here is that price is about 30 pips away from the parity figure and this might prove a significant support…

AUD/USD – No Trade Zone. The AUD has violated the bullish 60minute trend support line in a consolidation fashion, therefore the bullish hourly indicators. Wait for 0.9450 to be taken out before attempting any bearish trades. Should price continue higher, we will adjust the ranges of the 60minute trend accordingly to honor the 0.9450 trough we are seeing