by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key notes:

- Data calendar almost empty today, expect nice technical moves

- UK’s recession the worst of all – data suggests

- Auto bailout looks bleak

Probability Studies:

Since the violation of the previous bearish 60minute trend we had ample opportunities to trade the new bullish trading condition. I am using 1.2950 as a benchmark resistance as it resembles the upper line of the triangle we can see on the 4 hour charts

Although the bullish probability will remain intact, anything below 1.2950 will be seen as non-tradeable (no trade zone) and anything above 1.2950 will be bullish tradeable, just make sure you have a suitable trading condition from the 1 hour stochastic

Bullish trading condition. Although price is nearing the bearish Current Trend resistance line (blue line) at roundabout 1.5000, we will have a bullish trading condition for as long as the 1 hour stochastic remains bullish and price trends above 1.4680 which is the 60minute trend dynamic support at this stage

Bearish trading condition. Although the range of the 60minute trend is quite large, it still resembles the most active cycle within the bigger bullish Current Trend. There is intermediate support at 1.2015, therefore I would deem the CHF tradeable if market rhythm moves below the latter mentioned support. If your surname is “Wayne” and your name “John” then you might as well trade the CHF short without waiting for confirmation. After all, the 1 hour stochastic is bearish

Two significant higher troughs has given me the base for the new bullish 60minute trend and as long as the 1 hour stochastic remains bullish we will have a trading condition. Expect significant support at 92.00 and serious resistance at 93.10

I wish you a great pip hunting day!

Johan

*see you in the LTR, if you have any other questions please feel free to pop me a mail at jkriek@fxinstructor.com