The BoE kept rates steady at 5.00% yesterday and now we must wait for the minutes which will be released on 23 July. The ECB’s monthly statement also released yesterday told us what we already knew in terms of inflation and interest rates – the last 25BP hike was necessary

Across the atlantic, we saw Jobless Claims come out far better than expected, but this did not stop the Dollar from weakening across the board as Bernanke requested legislation for stronger supervision of investment banks and large dealers while Paulson noted that financial firms must be allowed to fail with taxpayer backstops reserved only for extraordinary events..

On the economic front today we have nothing of note coming out in Euroland and a series of significant fundamentals coming out in the US. Firstly we have the Trade Balance and Import Price Index with the University of Michigan survey and Fed Budget later

We could see price consolidate well into the European session until the US session starts

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. We adjusted the 60minute trend to reflect the low of 1.5767 which is also a pivot point for the failed rising wedge we saw yesterday. As soon as the 1 hour indicators cross bullish we will have a trading condition once again. Should price take out the low of 1.5767 we will have a no trade zone with a possible bearish probability IF market rhythm continues to trend lower

USD/CHF – No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. We identified a new bearish 60minute trend, therefore the bearish probability. Once the 1 hour indicators cross bearish we will have a trading condition

GBP/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. We identified the most active bearish 60minute trend by honoring the recent 1.9837 high. As soon as price violates the bullish Current Trend support (blue line) the bearish condition will continue. On the other hand, if the bearish 60minute trend is violated, we’ll have a bullish trading condition

USD/JPY – Bullish Trading Condition. The 1 hour indicators are bullish and the 60minute trend is still intact. Perfect bullish trading condition

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