EUR/USD Technical View

Euro recovered some ground the past week, and is now, again, close the the YTD high of 1.3850. The week started good with a 100 points up move but the middle of the week was rather undecided the pair needed some time to gather enough energy to go above the 1.3680/1.3700 resistance area. Thursday was the decisive day and that move was continued on Friday with the support of some fundamental news releases that pushed the pair to a high of 1.3820, although Friday’s close was 40 pips of the high the bias still looks bullish. First bull target for next week is the YTD high established on July 24th at 1.3850, once EurUsd clears this resistance we have to look at 1.3900 as an intermediary resistance before the 1.4000 round number. Looking at the weekly chart bellow one can see that an inside bar has formed, that can be interpreted either way, both as a bullish and as bearish signal, the important thing is to see which way it will break out; if in the following days Euro slips lower and gets below the 1.3680 resistance we will have to pay very close attention to price action around the 1.3600 level, because a break of that low will reinforce the bears in the market and this will possible trigger a much stronger move south.

Resistance Levels

• 1.4000 -round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High
• 1.3750 – round number

Support Levels

• 1.3680 – April 27th High
• 1.3550 – June 5th High
• 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low
• 1.3365 – December 3rd High

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro moved slightly above the 1.3680 resistance level but it got rejected from the 1.3700 round number, looks like the markets are waiting for the NFP release later on today before deciding which way to go. Trading above the 1.3680 resistance and looking at daily charts with the oscillators close to oversold areas one might be tempted to be long biased but a break above 1.3700 would give a much more clearer signal. If that happens and the pair clears Tuesday’s high at 1.3725 we will have to focus our attention on future resistance levels because another push towards the 1.3850 highs might be in play, closest resistance is the 1.3750 level that could act as intermediary resistance before a push towards July 24th highs at 1.3850. Conversely the pair might slip down towards the 1.3600 support and if the fundamentals support this move we might see a break bellow it, next bear target would be 1.3550/60 area followed by the 1.3460 support level.

Resistance Levels

• 1.3830 – July 18th High
• 1.3750 – round number
• 1.3680 – April 27th High

Support Levels

• 1.3550 – June 5th High
• 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low
• 1.3365 – December 3rd High

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This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on August 2, 2007.

Today’s Summary:

It was a slow day today, with nothing much moving. Prices today were in consolidation. No new trades were taken - unless we have a clear confirmation, we don’t enter into a trade just for the sake of trading. In fact, today would have been a great day to go out for a game of golf or some swimming!

One thing worth mentioning - as a follow up to our USD/CHF Wolfe Wave which was mentioned in yesterday’s recap. During yesterday’s session, we took a long on the USD/CHF when the price came back for a pullback and made a higher low.

So far the wolfe wave target seems very much on the way, while price is still retracing. This was a picture-perfect Wolfe Wave. The 2-4 and 1-3-5 lines have intersected at a potential target, but we want to protect our profits before risking an adverse market movement, so this is where our money management comes in.

We want to keep risk at a minimum, so we closed out half of our position at 1.2070, netting a profit of 70 points. With half of our position in the pocket, we shifted our stop loss to break-even level and left our targets open. At this time half of our position is still running to catch any potential profits, and if our stops are touched, we have locked in some profit and that is more important than anything else.

This is what we do here at FX Instructor - use money management along with chart patterns. Tomorrow is the first Friday of the month, and Non-Farm Payrolls will be coming out - a very volatile time. In preparation for that, however, the market should remain calm.

Click here to view higher quality versions of our past Live Trading Room summaries on our forums.

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro formed a doji like bar on the daily charts yesterday, and so far in today’s trading hours it hasn’t moved that much, the pair is trading just bellow the 1.3680 resistance so we, like we mentioned in yesterday’s commentary, just have to wait and see which way it will break above 1.3680 or bellow 1.3600. If the downside pressure starts to build up we will witness a retest of the 1.3600/15 support area and if the pair manages to break bellow it, a push towards the next bear target around 1.3550/60 and even lower at 1.3460. If on the other side euro manages to recover some strength a move above 1.3700 might in play and if the pair manages to clear yesterday’s high at 1.3725 we will have to focus our attention on future resistance levels because another push towards the 1.3850 highs might be in play, closest resistance is the 1.3750 level that could act as intermediary resistance before a push towards July 24th highs at 1.3850.

Resistance Levels

• 1.3830 – July 18th High
• 1.3750 – round number
• 1.3680 – April 27th High

Support Levels

• 1.3550 – June 5th High
• 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low

• 1.3365 – December 3rd High

(more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on August 1, 2007.

Today’s Summary:

A good start to the month of August, and we do hope to continue in this fashion. Today’s trading was entirely about Wolfe Waves. Wolfe Waves, Wolfe Waves, and more Wolfe Waves.

First and foremost: GBP/JPY. Since yesterday, we’ve been following this pair upwards, expecting a downtrend to form. We plotted bearish wolfe waves with the appropriate targets (we discussed Wolfe Waves at length in the Live Trading Room).

Price was in consolidation, and broke the Wolfe Wave channel (around 18:15 GMT, July 31 chart time), coming down to the Wolfe Wave target. With the target achieved, we wanted additional confirmation from our Fibonacci extensions. Price stopped at the 127% level, expected to go down to 161%. We let the trade run for some time, and the price exceeded our expectations.

Overall an excellent trade here on the GBP/JPY, earning us approximately 150 pips of profit.

Similarly GBP/USD also formed a Wolfe Wave, which we did not end up taking yet. Target lines were confirmed by Fibonacci retracements.

USD/CHF expecting a bullish move up on a bullish Wolfe Wave, which was confirmed today by the price. The trigger was when price came up and down for a re-test, and formed a higher low. The higher low was our confirmation. We are still long on this. Expected target #1 is: 1.2080 (60 points should be quite definite). Target #2: using Fibonacci extensions on this last move down, we obtain 1.2115. We are still expecting further up movement on this pair.

Click here to view higher quality versions of our past Live Trading Room summaries on our forums.

We Trade - You Learn
Our instructors perform trades on the real-time market, in our virtual Live Trading Room.

See, Listen, Participate
Watching professionals at work and learning from their example in the Live Trading Room is an essential part of becoming a better, more disciplined trader.

[tags]forex, trading, forex trading, forex videos[/tags]

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro didn’t manage to hold above 1.3680/1.3700 and we are currently trading just bellow that support area. Trading so close to an important resistance area, 1.3680/1.3700, and also just above the 1.3600 support line is not exactly giving the pair a clear direction so we will have to wait and see where on which side the Euro will break. If the downside pressure starts to build up we will witness a retest of the 1.3600/15 support area and if the pair manages to break bellow it, a push towards the next bear target around 1.3550/60 and even lower at 1.3460. If on the other side euro manages to recover some strength a move above 1.3700 might in play and if the pair manages to clear yesterday’s high at 1.3725 we will have to focus our attention on future resistance levels because another push towards the 1.3850 highs might be in play, closest resistance is the 1.3750 level that could act as intermediary resistance before a push towards July 24^th highs at 1.3850.

Resistance Levels

• 1.3830 – July 18^th High
• 1.3750 – round number
• 1.3680 – April 27th High

Support Levels

• 1.3550 – June 5th High
• 1.3459 – May 10th/11th Low

• 1.3365 – December 3rd High

(more…)