EUR/USD Technical View

The pair formed an outside bar yesterday but the daily range hasn’t been that big, just over 70 points. Although we have a new record high established early today, we can’t but repeat our previous commentary because the changes in the market situation are almost unnoticeable, traders are waiting for tomorrows FOMC meeting to see whether the US dollar will get a rate cut and how big it will be. With a new YTD high being established the bias is still bullish and the closest target is the 1.4500 round number, which at the moment doesn’t seem that far away. If the US dollar gets some positive news focus should be shifted towards the support areas, first one is the 1.4300 round number followed by the support offered by the ascending trendline we have on our chart below.

Resistance Levels

• 1.4467 YTD High
• 1.4300- round number

Support Levels

• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3930 – September 13th high
• 1.3850 – July 24th High
• 1.3680 – April 27th High
• 1.3550 – June 5th High

(more…)

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro opened with a small gap on Sunday night and printed a record high early on Monday at 1.4440, after that the pair slipped lower and one could say that it filled the gap. Price action seems to have slowed down a bit, even with the new high being made, traders are waiting for tomorrows FOMC meeting to see whether the US dollar will get a rate cut and how big it will be. With a new YTD high being established the bias is still bullish and the closest target is the 1.4500 round number, which at the moment doesn’t seem that far away. If the US dollar gets some positive news focus should be shifted towards the support areas, first one is the 1.4300 round number followed by the support offered by the ascending trendline we have on our chart below.

Resistance Levels

• 1.4350 YTD High
• 1.4200- round number

Support Levels

• 1.3930 – September 13th high
• 1.3850 – July 24th High
• 1.3680 – April 27th High
• 1.3550 – June 5th High

(more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 29, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Mondays usually are slow days and we wait for the technicals to settle down before we think of following up with the last week’s trades or looking at intraday. But on Mondays we do look forward, as we get the technical setups for Gap Trading.

The gaps are not present on forex as much as other markets, as it is a continuous market, but on Mondays the market can open with a gap, and currencies will give you excellent setups. Gap trading techniques are very effective. Lets have a look at one of the currencies which gave us an excellent one today.

The NZD/USD gave us a gap, though not a very large one - usually the larger the gap, the larger the move. We wait for the market to come back down to fill the gap, and went in Short upon a Bearish Divergence, expecting the price to fill the gap, which it did. The gap turns into a kind of channel, and price found support at this level. A nice Short trade on the NZD/USD, without all that much effort, which is the main advantage of gap trading. (more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 26, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Lets go over the long term things first which we’ve been following. On the GBP/USD, we were looking for a breakout on the daily timeframe from a Bullish Flag Formation. Price has been moving with lots of upwards momentum, and so far has remained above the mid channel of the flag. We were expecting a breakout this week, but it has not yet taken place. We have a penetration, but not a close.

On the intraday timeframes we did have an indication that today we might not get the close that we are looking for, because we had a Bullish 1-2-3 Formation. As I always say, “give me a 1-2-3 formation, and I can give you the targets”. We plotted Fibonacci Expansions to determine our targets, and price was rejected at the 127 level, so we do expect some retracement. Today is just not the day for the breakout. Lets see how it goes. Monday we do expect strong upmoves on the GBP/USD. (more…)

EUR/USD Technical View

The week started with a gap on Sunday night but due to mostly profit taking and a few rumors we saw a sharp fall on Monday , a fall of more than 200 points on the Euro; the pair found support at an ascending trendline and after that, the rest of the week it pushed higher and on Friday we broke through the 1.4348 high and got just a few pips away from the 1.4400 round number. Looking at the daily and weekly charts the upside momentum is still strong and without any big surprises in the following week the pair should be on track for reaching the 1.4500 bullish target, we have to mention that we have some important fundamental news coming out that might have a strong effect on the direction. If a retracement is going to happen we need to observe price action around the 1.4300 round number, the closest support area, and lower down around the ascending trendline we mentioned, an already proven support level.

Resistance Levels

• 1.4350 YTD High
• 1.4200- round number

Support Levels

• 1.3930 – September 13th high
• 1.3850 – July 24th High
• 1.3680 – April 27th High
• 1.3550 – June 5th High

(more…)

EUR/USD Technical View

The pair pushed higher on Thursday reaching Monday night high and continued to move in today’s Asian session and is now trading above the previous highs, the current YTD high is at 1.4375. Breaking a new high should give the bulls the upper hand as the momentum is clearly on the long side, now that the pair is trading above the resistance level the only significant target left on the charts is the 1.4500 round number. Although the price still points north reaching the above mentioned target is not going to be a one way trip, so we need to be aware of the possibility of a retracement, if that happens the support is represented by the 1.4300 round number and the up sloping trend lines you see marked on our chart and lower down we have Monday’s low at 1.4120.

Resistance Levels

• 1.4350 YTD High
• 1.4200- round number

Support Levels

• 1.3930 – September 13th high
• 1.3850 – July 24th High
• 1.3680 – April 27th High
• 1.3550 – June 5th High

(more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 25, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Lets start with one of the trades we were following since yesterday’s recap - the GBP/CHF on 30 min timeframe. The trigger was a Bearish Divergence. Price made higher highs, while stochastics were giving lower highs. We consider this an aggressive “Class A” divergence. The entry for this trade was determined by certain Fibonacci Retracements, and price did go down beyond our target of 2.3940.

We also use the Andrew’s Pitchfork in different ways to confirm the entry. In this case, the price broke through the midline of the APF, and came back to retest it as a resistance. This is another strong confirmation that a downtrend is in progress. In our room we do like to twist around the technical tools available to give us better results.

Lets go over an intraday trade we ended up taking today. The GBP/JPY, one of the most popular pairs in our room, had a Long trade, though the extent was not too large. As I always say, its the technique and methodology which is always more important than the result. (more…)

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro formed a inside bar yesterday after a mixed day when it moved lower in the first hours and managed to close a few points above the high at the end; so far today we’re getting nearer to the 1.4300 level and although the indicators on the daily charts have turned lower in an overbought area the trend still points north. Looking for important price levels, on the north side we aim for the YTD high at 1.4350 before possibly making a strong push towards the 1.4500 round number, both of these levels act as a target and as resistance levels to be aware of; conversely on the south side support is represented by the up sloping trendlines we have on our chart and Monday’s low at 1.4120 followed by the 1.4000 level.

Resistance Levels

• 1.4350 YTD High
• 1.4200- round number

Support Levels

• 1.3930 – September 13th high
• 1.3850 – July 24th High
• 1.3680 – April 27th High
• 1.3550 – June 5th High

(more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 24, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

As I always say, its the procedures and technique that are more important than the result of a trade. I know we are all here to trade and win, but ultimately its the procedure that counts more - how you go into the trade, how you analyze it, how you plan your exit. We’ll go over a few setups from today and the techniques which we used to analyze them.

Lets start off with one of the setups we managed to catch in time that is going so far in our favor.
On the GBP/CHF we were looking at a Regular Bearish Divergence, with price making higher highs, and stochastics lower highs. Based on our procedure we calculate our targets using Fibonacci projections on the last move down. So far its on a pause, but expect further moves down. (more…)

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro slowly moved higher on Tuesday but it lacked the energy to get close to the 1.4300 round number and as a consequence of that it has started the day losing a few points and retesting the 1.4200 level. The situation hasn’t changed that much, the overall trend is still bullish this seems just like a cooling down period especially after Monday’s moves. Looking for important price levels, on the north side we aim for the YTD high at 1.4350 before possibly making a strong push towards the 1.4500 round number, both of these levels act as a target and as resistance levels to be aware of; conversely on the south side support is represented by the up sloping trendlines we have on our chart and Monday’s low at 1.4120 followed by the 1.4000 level.

Resistance Levels

• 1.4350 YTD High
• 1.4200- round number

Support Levels

• 1.3930 – September 13th high
• 1.3850 – July 24th High
• 1.3680 – April 27th High
• 1.3550 – June 5th High

(more…)