2007 December

Thursday’s Dec 20th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd failling to print a new low in yesterday’s US session gave bulls enough reason to push the pair higher and so it touched the 1.4400 intraday resistance and after that we saw a small retracement towards the 50.0 Fibonacci of yesterday’s trading renage. We may a second attempt at the 1.4400 level in today’s remaining trading hours.

GbpUsd traded inside Thursday’s range, and after it didn’t manage to break a new low we are trading just under the 1.9900 resistance and chances are the pair will head higher in the US session.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro failed to reach the 1.4300 round number on Thursday and stopped only pips away; after that the pair bounced back and in today’s Asian session we saw it make an intraday high at 1.4400. Unless something unexpected happens we think we are going to trade around the current levels at least until the US session when we could see a stronger move forming. Looking for support and resistance level we have to take into consideration the current weeks high and low at 1.4450 and 1.4310 respectively as the closest levels that need to be broken for the pair to move either way.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Thursday’s Dec 20th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd continued yesterday’s move and after it retraced a bit late in the US session it started to move down again and printed a new low just pips above 1.4300 support level. 1.4300 should give the true strength of this bearish move as it s a tough support level, a break here will certainly be a blow to bullish hopes.

GbpUsd retraced towards the 2.000 resistance but failed to reach it and then the pair sinked lower even breaking the 1.9900 support. Yesterday’s 270 points move has a projecte Fibonacci expansion target of 1.9760, we remeber this level from a few months ago when the pair was heading higher.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro broke lower on Wednesday by just a few pips but the overall price action of the day has given us a bearish bias and we expect the pair to touch is not go under the 1.4300 later on today. Lower down we have the 23.6 Fibonacci line at 1.4242 of the October-November move north which is very close to an ascending trendline we have marked on our chart that is connecting former yearly highs and has turned from a resistance line into a support one. Conversely a turnaround in price will have to break above 1.4450 which at the moment is the closest intermediary resistance before one could expect a a move above 1.4500 area.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Wednesday’s Dec 19th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd has entered into the 3rd consecutive tight range day, it covered today only 50 pips with the mention that it broke under the trendline connecting monday and tuesday’s lows and has already retested the trendline now turned into resistance and one could expect a move lower later on in the US session.

GbpUsd broke lower today when the BOE minutes got out, and before that the pair surged higher and tested the 2.0180 intraday resistance. Today’s low at 2.0030 is just pips away from the Fibonacci Expansion target we mentioned a while back and we are looking to get closer to the 2.00 area in the following hours.

GbpUsd Technical View

GbpUsd just poked once again the 2.0100 support level and right as this commentary is written the pair is trading slightly under the trendline that marks the lower side of the bullish channel. So far the pair has traded within our expectations between the 2.0200 resistance and the 2.0100 support for the last couple of days but we have a piece of news(BOE minutes) coming from the UK central bank today that could have a major effect on the pair and start a more serious move. Breaking below the current lows brings us closer to our Fibonacci Expansion target at 2.0020 area and will possibly open up the 2.00 round area as the next major support zone on the charts. Conversely a move higher will have to break the 2.0200 resistance which so far has proven to be a strong one.

Resistance Levels

• 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
• 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
• 2.0650 – July 24th High

Support Levels

• 2.0460 – August 3rd High
• 2.0365 – September 12th High
• 2.0200 – Round number

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Tuesday’s Dec 18th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd stayed contained in a 50 pip range not managing to break above the 1.4415 intraday resistance line. The pair has clearly slowed down it’s bearish momentum and it starts to look bullish at least on the shorter timeframes.

GbpUsd formed both today and yesterday two exhaustion pattern on the 1 hour timeframe seen below, and this looks hard to break unless we get some bullish USD news that can push the pair lower. Looking at the chart closest resistance is last weeks low at 2.0180 that has been already tested in the UK session and we expect at least another test of this level in the Us session.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro printed a doji like bar on Monday, the pair headed for the 1.4300 support level in the morning but failed to reach it and ended up closing the day above the 1.4400 round number; today’s Asian session brought the pair a little bit lower but still we are trading very close to the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement line of the October-November move north that established the current YTD high at 1.4967. We need to see a more stronger move at the 1.4300 support before being to confident in the down moves potential, yesterday’s range should give us an opportunity to better asses the situation: a new low is clearly a bearish signal while a move above 1.4450 will be rather bullish and might signal the end of the down move.

Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number

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Monday’s Dec 17th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

Euro continued Friday’s down move and already covered more than 100 points in today’s Asian and European session; the pair retraced a bit towards the 1.4400 round number but is once again heading lower and we could see the 1.4300 bearish target getting hit later on today.

GbpUsd hit the resistance at the 2.0200 in the Asian session and than moved sharply down until it hit the 2.0100 support and the ascending trendline that marks the lower part of the monthly bullish channel. We notice a bullish divergence formed on the 1 hour charts supporting a bounce from the 2.0100 level. A failure to break a new low will definetly give bulls reasons to try and push the pair higher.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro formed a big red candle on the weekly charts, as seen below, but the most part of the move was made on Thursday and Friday when the pair dropped almost 300 points, we witnessed a small consolidation period for the first 3 days of the week around the 1.4700 area. On Friday EurUsd broke through the closest support levels and pushed lower towards the 1.4400 area getting close to the 38.02 Fibonacci retracement line of the October-November move north that established the current YTD high at 1.4967. Breaking below the trendline connecting the October lows was a a clear bearish signal although a retest of the 1.4500 area is not out of the question in the next couple of days as this particular area has proved to be strong support turned now into resistance. Looking at the big picture we can see the 1.4300 area as the main bearish target and a place where the pair could find significant support as the bullish traders will try to establish a new base there.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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