Herewith is my daily recap for June 30, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/30-june-eurusd-probability-study-eurozone-cpi-eyed-today/

Today we have Eurozone inflation figures in the form of CPI at 09:00GMT. Consensus calls for a rise to 3.9% from 3.6%. Should inflation be higher than the previous 3.6% or even higher than consensus, we can expect another surge in the EUR/USD as this figure will certainly confirm Trichet’s ambitions of raising interest rates. Trichet is clearly the winner in this match as the Fed’s Bernanke shows no interest in raising rates.

The high price of oil and rising unemployment and the looming second wave of the credit crunch does not spell moonshine and roses for the US economy.

Herewith the Probability Studies for today:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Price has clearly violated the bearish current trend resistance (blue line) which resembles a falling wedge upper line on the daily chart. This pattern has now signalled a continuation of the preceding bullish daily trend with a possibility of price reaching 1.6400. Nevertheless, now that price has breached the consolidation pattern, we can expect a trending market for weeks to come. From an intraday probability study point of view, we would first wait for the 1 hour stochastic to cross bullish before we’ll have a suitable bullish trading condition

Have a look at the wedge on the Daily Chart attached as well:

We will have an interesting week with the US Unemployment data on Fiday the cherry on the cake..

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other major pairs such as the GBP and JPY crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

Mon, 30th of June, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD still continued it’s bullish momentum on Friday, but with less power. The pair topped and closed at 1.5791 and bottomed at 1.5719. I am expecting a consolidation movement to the downside as we see many resistance at 1.5800 area and the price is already in overbought area on daily chart. My model is mixed with no trading zone. Immediate support seen at 1.5730. Initial resistance at 1.5850.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5743
• S2= 1.5695
• S3= 1.5671
• R1= 1.5815
• R2= 1.5839
• R3= 1.5887

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD hit my long target at 1.9950 on Friday, topped at 1.9952. My model remains long, targeting 2.0030. CCI already in overbought area on daily chart, so watch out for a minor downside pullback. Immediate support is seen at 1.9890. Only use tight money management at this phase. Wait for confirmation on your indicator/oscillator to find long position.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.9850
• S2= 1.9752
• S3= 1.9701
• R1= 1.9999
• R2= 2.0050
• R3= 2.0148

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY hit my short target at 106.30, even further, bottomed at 105.86. My model remains short, targeting 105.10. Immediate resistance is seen at 106.60. CCI in neutral area on daily chart. We know that USDJPY is still in bullish outlook on bigger time frame, so only use tight money management at this phase.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 105.58
• S2= 105.05
• S3= 104.24
• R1= 106.92
• R2= 107.73
• R3= 108.26

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF continued it’s bearish momentum on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.0164, 13 pips higher from my short target at 1.0151. CCI already in extreme oversold area. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.0151. Initial resistance seen at 1.0265. Expect for an upside correctional movement today.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0142
• S2= 1.0101
• S3= 1.0039
• R1= 1.0245
• R2= 1.0307
• R3= 1.0348

Have a great day!

Although price has consolidated for most of the Asian session, our weakening dollar bias is still in play. High oil and no signs of a Fed bailout sent the Dow down 350 points on risk aversion. We also saw Japan’s CPI rocket to 1.5% signaling higher inflation which means higher interest rates. Therefore we can expect some carry trade unwinding.

On the economic front today we have UK GDP and then US PCE core and University of Michigan survey. The dollar is weakening at a fast pace but we can see how the bucky is finding moderate support at these levels. Heading to the weekend we will certainly look at fundamentals but still honor our Probability Studies

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. The bullish 60minute trend is still intact, therefore the bullish probability. The 1 hour indicators are bearish and thus we have a no trade zone and even if these 1 hour indicators cross bullish then price has to violate the bearish Current Trend resistance (Blue line at 1.5773) before we can resume all bullish entries

USD/CHF - No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Price violated the Major Trend support (red line at 1.0265) and the bearish trading condition ensued. Price has since then pulled back a bit to find major resistance at the violated Major trend support which confirms the violation. The previous bearish 60minute trend’s range was a bit large and we identified a new, more active 60minute trend. Nevertheless, the probability remains bearish and as soon as the 1 hour Stochastic cross bearish we will have a suitable bearish trading condition once again

GBP/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. The bullish probability is definitely intact and as long as the 60minute trend remains bullish and the 1 hour indicators cross bullish then the trading condition will come into play again

USD/JPY - No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Price is converging with the bullish Current Trend support line (blue line at 106.50) and we would therefore wait for this low to be taken out before trading short again. Nevertheless, the probability is still bearish with a no trade zone

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

Fri, 27th of June, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD continued it’s bullish momentum. Yesterday the pair hit my long target 1.5725 even further, topped at 1.5766. However, it can be very tricky at this phase as CCI already in overbought area on daily chart. The last 2 times CCI in overbought area on daily chart, the pair fell sharply to the downside, so we can not just ignore it’s warning of a reversal/correctional downside movement this time. My model is mixed with downside bias. It’s better to stand aside, no trading this weekend.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5664
• S2= 1.5577
• S3= 1.5526
• R1= 1.5802
• R2= 1.5853
• R3= 1.5940

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD also in a good bullish momentum yesterday. The pair hit my long target 1.9850 even further, topped at 1.9894. My model remains long targeting 1.9950. However, CCI already in overbought area so the bullish power could be exhausted right now. Immediate support is seen at 1.9840 followed by 1.9800. Only use tight money management at this phase.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.9769
• S2= 1.9651
• S3= 1.9589
• R1= 1.9949
• R2= 2.0011
• R3= 2.0129

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY finally made a downside break out from ranging area. Yesterday the pair bottomed at 106.61 and closed at 106.86. My model is short targeting 106.30. Immediate resistance is seen at 107.20. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 106.25
• S2= 105.64
• S3= 104.68
• R1= 107.82
• R2= 108.78
• R3= 109.39

USDCHF Outlook
Similar to Euro and Sterling, yesterday the Swiss franc was traded convincingly stronger against US Dollar. The USDCHF hit my short target 1.0270 even further, bottomed at 1.0218. My model remains short targeting 1.0151. However, CCI already in oversold area on daily chart, so a correctional upside movement might happen today. Only use tight money management at this phase.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0176
• S2= 1.0111
• S3= 1.0004
• R1= 1.0348
• R2= 1.0455
• R3= 1.0520

Have a great weekend!

“uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high” - an extract from the accompanying statement. The Dollar weakened considerably after the Fed left rates unchanged and reiterated that they basically don’t know where inflation will head next. Well thanks for that one Uncle Ben

The direction of highest probability has changed on all major pairs and we will therefore trade accordingly. It will also be interesting to see what happens with the GDP figures in the US today as well as existing home sales

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. As soon as the 1 hour Stochastic confirms the bullish cross we will have a suitable bullish trading condition once again. Expect resistance at 1.5785

USD/CHF - No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Price is consolidating at present, therefore the stagnant 1 hour indicators. As soon as they cross bearish we will have a suitable bearish trading condition

GBP/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Although the 1 hour indicators are bullish, price must first violate the Major Trend resistance (red line) at 1.9750 and trend above it before the bullish trading condition will come in play

USD/JPY - No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Price violated the bearish 60minute trend to the upside after the FOMC announcement but came back into the channel. As long as price remains below the bearish 60minute trend resistance line we will have a bearish probability. Wait for the 1 hour indicators to cross bearish before attempting any bearish trades

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

Thu, 26th of June, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD finally broke the key level 1.5650 and topped at 1.5687 yesterday. Technically, this fact will give us further upside scenario towards 1.5800-1.5900 area. My model goes long, targeting 1.5725. Immediate support is seen at 1.5620. CCI already in overbought area on daily chart, so watch out for a downside risk.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5572
• S2= 1.5479
• S3= 1.5422
• R1= 1.5722
• R2= 1.5779
• R3= 1.5872

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD is in bullish momentum now and the pair had violated bearish trend line resistance on daily chart. My model goes long targeting 1.9850. Immediate support is seen at 1.9690. CCI heading up towards 100 line on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.9677
• S2= 1.9609
• S3= 1.9563
• R1= 1.9791
• R2= 1.9837
• R3= 1.9905

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY still in consolidation phase, traded in ranging market in this week, between 107.20-108.50 area. We haven’t see any important move so far. My model is mixed with no trading zone. CCI in neutral area on daily chart. Stand aside.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 107.53
• S2= 107.22
• S3= 106.78
• R1= 108.28
• R2= 108.72
• R3= 109.03

USDCHF Outlook
Following the Euro, the Swiss Franc was traded stronger against US Dollar yesterday. The USDCHF bottomed at 1.0340 and closed at 1.0351. My model goes short, targeting 1.0270. CCI heading down towards -100 line on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0312
• S2= 1.0274
• S3= 1.0208
• R1= 1.0416
• R2= 1.0482
• R3= 1.0520

Have a great day!

Herewith is my daily recap for June 25, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/25-june-probability-studies-fomc/

Today is the day! The Fed announces Interest Rates and consensus calls for rates to be kept steady at 2.00% but never say never. The Fed can be full of surprises. Nevertheless, yesterday’s Consumer Confidence and Housing figures were much worse than expected. With inflation creeping up and the US economy still slowing and don’t forget rising unemployment we may enter an era of Stagflation and one of the tools the Fed can use to battle the possible stagflation issue would be to raise rates

Today will be very interesting. Good luck!

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Price never bounced off the violated previous bullish 60minute trend support and actually moved back into the channel after weaker than expected fundamentals yesterday. The move inside the violated 60minute trend’s channel could not be sustained and now price is below the violated support once again. We used the high of 1.5651 and 1.5621 to base a new bearish 60minute trend as they are the highest significant turning point. The 60minute trend is now bearish once again and therefore the bearish probability. Once the 1 hour indicators cross bearish we will have a trading condition as well

USD/CHF - No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Price is converging with the bearish 60minute trend resistance line but has to bounce off this resistance significantly and take out the low of 1.0350 before we will have a bearish trading condition. On the other hand if price moves above 1.0415 we will have a bullish probability with immediate resistance at 1.0490/5000

GBP/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. The 60minute trend is bullish once again therefore the bullish probability. We have bearish 1 hour indicators which places the Cable in a no trade zone. If we have a closer look we can see price is actually ranging between 1.9750 (Major Trend resistance) and 1.9630 (Current Trend support). Conclusion: If we have a break South below 1.9630 we will have a bearish trading condition and if we have a break North above 1.9750 we will have a bullish trading condition

USD/JPY - No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. The bearish 60minute trend is still intact therefore the bearish probability. The 1 hour indicators are the culprits in this case as they are bullish which gives us a no trade Zone. Again, wait for price to violate the 60minute trend to the upside before trading bullish. If the 1 hour indicators cross bearish then the bearish trading condition will ensue

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

Herewith is my daily recap for June 24, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/24-june-probability-study-fomc-meeting-begins-today/