Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for September 30, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/30-september-probability-studies-bailout-plan-rejected-markets-in-disarray/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Sep 30, 2008
by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

No Trade Zone within a bullish probability. After the bailout plan was rejected yesterday the dollar weakened considerably against the majors but moved back to its original levels since then. I still see a bullish probability on the CHF even though we had the huge move/exhaustion break and as soon as the 1 hour indicators cross bullish the CHF will be situated in a bullish trading condition once again. Expect resistance at 1.1070/90 as it resembles the bearish current trend resistance line. Without the low from the break at 1.0800, the next support will be your 60minute trend support at 1.0900

The bearish probability on the EUR is still intact and as soon as market rhythm starts trending lower the EUR will be situated within a suitable bearish trading condition once again. I am not fazed by the fact that price spiked back into the violated bullish current trend’s channel as the move above 1.4500 could not be sustained. Wait for the 1 hour stochastic and you will have a great bearish trading condition once again…

The Cable’s also in a bearish probability but I will wait for a bearish trading condition first before attempting any shorts. Due to the fact that the previous bullish current trend (blue line) has been violated I see a cycle change to the downside which is in the direction of the overall bearish Major Trend after all. To recap, wait for the 1 hour stochastic to confirm to the downside

This one is also in a bearish probability and as long as the 60minute trend remains bearish. I will wait for the 1 hour stochastic to confirm a possible bearish cross as well. It’s always interesting to see a scenario where the JPY strengthens with the Bucky. It just screams carry trade unwinding. Just keep track of your exposure as the markets are very volatile at this stage

There we go, Dollar strength across the board today

Join me in the LTR for more info and if you have any questions

Johan Kriek

Tue, 30th of September, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD was traded lower yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.4302 but closed higher at 1.4416. The bullish channel on 4h chart is violated to the downside. My model remains mixed with downside bias. However the pair need to stay below 1.4467 level to keep the bearish scenario intact. A failure to do so could trigger further bullish momentum. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4430 (former support). Initial support at 1.4302 (yesterday’s low) followed by 1.4250. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.4288
• S2= 1.4160
• S3= 1.4018
• R1= 1.4558
• R2= 1.4700
• R3= 1.4828

GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday GBPUSD hit my short targets at 1.8230 and 1.8135, even further, bottomed at 1.7958 and closed at 1.8041. My model remains short targeting 1.7913. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.8060 followed by 1.8125. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.7885
• S2= 1.7730
• S3= 1.7502
• R1= 1.8268
• R2= 1.8496
• R3= 1.8651

USDJPY Outlook
The Greenback slumped against Japanese Yen yesterday. The pair bottomed at 103.96 and closed at 103.98. My model is mixed with downside bias. Initial support at 103.50 followed by 102.60. CCI just cross -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential bullish correction testing 104.50 and 104.90 resistance areas.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 102.97
• S2= 101.96
• S3=  99.97
• R1= 105.97
• R2= 107.96
• R3= 108.97

USDCHF Outlook
Yesterday further bullish momentum of USDCHF was rejected. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.1085 but whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.0801 and closed at 1.0899. However my model remains mixed with upside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.0885 followed by 1.0830. Initial resistance at 1.1030 followed by 1.0785 (yesterday’s high). CCI just cross -100 line up on daily chart suggesting a potential bullish view.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0771
• S2= 1.0644
• S3= 1.0487
• R1= 1.1055
• R2= 1.1212
• R3= 1.1339

Have a great day!

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for September 29, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/september-29-market-commentary-and-technical-levels/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Mon, 29th of September, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
After 2 days of indecisive movement last week, the EURUSD was traded lower early today in Asian session, around 1.4505 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact force my model to mixed with downside bias. The key level at this phase is 1.4430. A break to the downside from that level could trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.4355 then 1.4250. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4571. Be patient.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.4552
• S2= 1.4491
• S3= 1.4429
• R1= 1.4675
• R2= 1.4737
• R3= 1.4798

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD made a soft recovery on Friday, but traded lower again early today in Asian session at around 1.8275 at the time I wrote this comment. The bullish channel on 4h chart is violated to the downside. My model is short targeting 1.8230 then 1.8135. CCI just cross 100 line down on daily chart suggesting a potential bearish view. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.8350.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.8362
• S2= 1.8280
• S3= 1.8228
• R1= 1.8496
• R2= 1.8548
• R3= 1.8630

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY attempted to push lower on Friday, bottomed at 105.02 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair closed higher at 106.00. Early today in Asian session the pair was traded higher at around 106.70 at the time I wrote this comment. My model is mixed with upside bias. Immediate support is seen at 106.30 followed by 106.00. Initial resistance at 107.01 followed by 107.50. CCI already in overbought area both on hourly and 4h chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 105.17
• S2= 104.34
• S3= 103.67
• R1= 106.67
• R2= 107.34
• R3= 108.17

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF made a break out to the upside of ranging area (1.0943 and 1.0800) early today in Asian session. My model is mixed with upside bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1040. CCI already in overbought area on both hourly and 4h chart suggesting a potential bearish pressure testing 1.0943 and 1.0900 support areas.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0848
• S2= 1.0793
• S3= 1.0760
• R1= 1.0936
• R2= 1.0969
• R3= 1.1024

Have a great day!

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for September 26, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/26-september-probability-studies-volatility-is-rife/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Fri, Sep 26 2008
by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Well, well, well. Amidst the volatility in the run up to the bailout decision the markets are pretty volatile and just keep track that we’ve seen over the past week how probabilities has changed back and forth. So please keep your exposure in place

Anyway, have a look at the chart above. We have a bullish 60minute trend and therefore a bullish probability. The 1 hour stochastic has crossed bullish already but we have to wait for this cross to be confirmed. Should the stoch be confirmed we will have a suitable bullish trading condition

On the EUR side I see a great bearish trading condition, bearish 60minute trend, bearish hourly indicators…what do you want more?

Anyway, watch the current trend support around 1.4400

Bearishness eez Same as the EUR

Just remember that 1.8330 is a significant support level as it resembles the bullish current trend support line. You have a bearish trading condition now up to the point where price converges with 1.8330

Should this support be taken out we can expect a full bearish cycle in the direction of our bearish overall major trend

Anything below 105.50 on the JPY will confirm the bearish trading condition. At this point in time this currency is just so volatile that you really have to watch it closely before attempting any trades. You have to have hair on your teeth - just like our Uncle John Wayne…

The bearish probability you have here can change in an instant. Rather ask me in the LTR to give you a view on the JPY just to confirm that the JPY is still bearish

Hope you have a great Friday trading day and do not hesitate to contact me at jkriek@fxinstructor.com with any comments or questions

Johan Kriek

Fri, 26th of September, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD made indecisive movement by opened and closed at almost the same price yesterday (1.4613 and 1.4617). The pair attempted to pushed lower, bottomed at 1.4560 but further bearish momentum was rejected as the pair closed higher. Early today in Asian session the pair was traded softly higher around 1.4660 at the time I wrote this comment. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.4603 followed by 1.4560 (yesterday’s low). CCI just cross -100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential bullish pressure testing 1.4770 resistance area.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.4529
• S2= 1.4441
• S3= 1.4322
• R1= 1.4736
• R2= 1.4855
• R3= 1.4943

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD break out to the downside from the ranging area of 1.8642 and 1.8472 yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.8305 and closed at 1.8381. However the pair was traded softly higher around 1.8420 at the time I wrote this comment. My model goes mixed with downside bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.8467. Initial support at 1.8380 followed by 1.8305 (yesterday’s low). CCI about to cross 100 line down on daily chart suggesting a potential bearish view.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.8235
• S2= 1.8089
• S3= 1.7873
• R1= 1.8597
• R2= 1.8813
• R3= 1.8959

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 107.01 and closed at 106.47. However the pair was corrected lower early today in Asian session, traded around 105.90 at the time I wrote this comment. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 106.50. Initial support at 105.50 followed by 104.70. CCI just cross -100 line down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 105.61
• S2= 104.76
• S3= 104.06
• R1= 107.16
• R2= 107.86
• R3= 108.71

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF current bullish momentum was softly corrected yesterday but bearish momentum was also seemed very limited. My model is mixed with neutral bias. I am expecting a ranging market between 1.0943 and 1.0800. A break out from that ranging area would give us a clearer direction. CCI in oversold area on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0815
• S2= 1.0737
• S3= 1.0674
• R1= 1.0956
• R2= 1.1019
• R3= 1.1097

Have a great weekend!

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for September 25, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/25-september-probability-studies-wedges-across-the-board/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Thu, Sep 25 2008
by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

At the end of the US session yesterday and the duration of the Asian Session today we saw how price attempted to trend higher but eventually ended up defining a rising wedge. Now a rising wedge signals a breakout to the downside, therefore the bearish probability.

By the looks of things the previous bullish probability was short lived…

The falling wedge on the EUR has now been violated to the upside. Keep an eye on the 1.4866 recent significant high.  Should this high be taken out I will be forced to the honour the previous low at 1.4600 as it will then become the second pivot for a new bullish 60minute trend

The wedge on the GBP has also been violated to the upside and therefore the bullish probability. Unfortunately price is very close to the recent significant high at 1.8640 and I would rather wait for this high to be taken out to get confirmation of the bullish trading condition

The JPY is rapidly confirming the violation of the bullish current trend support at 105.69 and in due time the new bearish 60minute trend will eventually evolve into the new bearish current trend. Nevertheless, we have a bearish probability and a continuation of bearish market rhythm on the lower timeframes will confirm the new bearish trading condition. Just remember that anything above 105.69 will plunge the JPY in a no trade zone once again..

Have a great trading day today and if you have any questions or comments please email me at jkriek@fxinstructor.com or join us in the Live Trading Room

Have a great one!

Johan Kriek