2008 October

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for October 31, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/31-october-probability-studies-mixed-markets-continues/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Fri, 31 October 2008
by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key Events:

- BoJ rate decision still awaited

- Eurozone inflation, unemployment

- US PCE, Chicago PMI

Probability Studies:

Please note that the markets are very mixed as one part wants to shy away from risk and the other waits for a light at the end of the tunnel. We can clearly see this in the probability studies

Therefore the markets/probabilities can change in an instant so please join us in the Live Trading Room for updates

Johan Kriek

Fri, 31th of October, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday. After broke the 1.3200 resistance (23.6 Fibo from 1.6038 to 1.2333), the pair topped at 1.3289, but further bullish correction was rejected as the pair quickly fell, hit the bottom at 1.2804 and closed at 1.2875. Although I think we might see another bullish attempt, this upside rejection should keep the bearish scenario intact. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3006. Initial support at 1.2735 followed by 1.2590.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.2686
• S2= 1.2498
• S3= 1.2192
• R1= 1.3180
• R2= 1.3486
• R3= 1.3674

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD failed to maintain bullish momentum yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 1.6670 but closed lower at 1.6371. This upside failure should keep the major bearish scenario intact, but in this volatile market we might see another bullish attempt as CCI also in oversold area on weekly and monthly chart. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.6408. Initial support at 1.6215 followed by 1.6035.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.6164
• S2= 1.5957
• S3= 1.5704
• R1= 1.6624
• R2= 1.6624
• R3= 1.7084

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY continued it’s bullish correction yesterday. The pair topped at 99.14 and closed at 98.63. However the pair was traded lower early today in Asian session around 98.30 at the time I wrote this comment. My model is mixed with neutral bias in nearest term, but with upside bias in longer term. Immediate support is seen at 97.60 followed by 96.80. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 97.58
• S2= 96.54
• S3= 95.76
• R1= 99.40
• R2= 100.18
• R3= 101.22

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF failed to maintain the bearish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.1478 and closed at 1.1425. This fact should keep the major bullish scenario intact. Only a consistent move below 1.1250 could trigger further bearish corrections. Immediate support is seen at 1.1375 followed by 1.1325. Initial resistance at 1.1478 (yesterday’s high) followed by 1.1550. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.1258
• S2= 1.1092
• S3= 1.0982
• R1= 1.1534
• R2= 1.1644
• R3= 1.1810

Have a great weekend!

Thu, 30 October Probability Studies
by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key Notes:

- FOMC cut rates by 50 basis points. Dollar weakens

- Fed notes that economy had slowed significantly

- Inflation to moderate as well

Today’s Key events

- Germany Unemployment

- US GDP

Probability Studies:

Thu, 30th of October, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD continued it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair topped at 1.2991 and closed at 1.2951. Early today in Asian session the pair was traded higher around 1.3060 at the time I wrote this comment. This fact should open the door for a further upside correction scenario towards 1.3200 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement from 1.6038 to 1.2333). My model is mixed with upside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.2920 followed by 1.2810. CCI just cross -100 line up on daily chart suggesting a potential bullish view.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.2720
• S2= 1.2489
• S3= 1.2354
• R1= 1.3086
• R2= 1.3221
• R3= 1.3452

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling also continued it’s recovery against Greenback yesterday. The pair topped at 1.6474 and closed at 1.6360. This fact should trigger further upside correction scenario towards 1.7113 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from 2.0158 to 1.5262). My model is mixed with upside bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.6560 followed by 1.6775. CCI just cross -100 line up on daily chart suggesting a potential bullish view.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5601
• S2= 1.5182
• S3= 1.4964
• R1= 1.6238
• R2= 1.6456
• R3= 1.6875

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY bullish momentum seemed to lose power yesterday. The pair bottomed at 96.07 but closed higher at 97.39. However, early today in Asian session there are some upside pressures as the pair was traded higher around 98.75 at the time I wrote this comment. My model is mixed with upside bias. Immediate support is seen at 97.10. Initial resistance at 99.68. CCI just cross 100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside pressures.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 96.15
• S2= 94.91
• S3= 93.75
• R1= 98.55
• R2= 99.71
• R3= 100.95

USDCHF Outlook
The Greenback slumped against Swiss Franc yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.1251 and closed at 1.1304. This fact should trigger further downside correction towards 1.0090 area. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1340. Initial support at 1.1205 followed by 1.1158. CCI heading down towards -100 line on daily chart suggesting some downside pressures.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.1175
• S2= 1.1047
• S3= 1.0843
• R1= 1.1507
• R2= 1.1711
• R3= 1.1839

Have a great day!

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for October 29, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Wed, 29th of October, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD made a significant upside correction yesterday (It’s about time huh? ). The pair topped at 1.2835 and closed at 1.2816. Early today in Asian session the pair was traded softly lower. CCI about to cross -100 line up on daily chart suggesting a potential further upside movement. However, although further upside momentum might continue today, I think we should see any upside movement as a consolidation/correction and long trade positions are not recommended at this phase. Be patient. The major trend is still bearish. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3006 followed by 1.3200 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement from 1.6038 to 1.2333). Initial support at 1.2690 followed by 1.2590.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.2485
• S2= 1.2154
• S3= 1.1979
• R1= 1.2991
• R2= 1.3166
• R3= 1.3497

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD also made a significant upside correction yesterday. The pair topped at 1.6037 and closed at 1.6021. We need this upside correction as CCI already In extreme oversold area on monthly chart. We also should see this current upside momentum as consolidation/correction move. CCI about to cross -100 line up on daily chart, suggesting a potential upside momentum. However, long trade positions are not recommended at this phase. Be patient. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.6141 followed by 1.6408.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5601
• S2= 1.5182
• S3= 1.4964
• R1= 1.6238
• R2= 1.6456
• R3= 1.6875

USDJPY Outlook
After an indecisive movement on Monday, the USDJPY was corrected higher yesterday. The pair made a huge movement of more than 700 pips, topped at 99.68 and closed at 98.15. However the pair was traded lower early today in Asian session around 97.30 at the time I wrote this comment. My model is mixed but still with downside bias as I see this bullish movement only as a correction of the major bearish trend. Be patient at this phase. Immediate resistance is seen at 99.68 (yesterday’s high). Initial support at 96.80 followed by 95.80. CCI in overbought area and heading down on 4h chart suggesting downside pressures.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 93.96
• S2= 89.78
• S3= 86.92
• R1= 101.00
• R2= 103.86
• R3= 108.04

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF continued it’s soft lower correction yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.1508 and closed at 1.1526. My model is mixed with neutral bias, but we  are still in bullish outlook in longer term. Immediate support is seen at 1.1480 followed by 1.1375. Initial resistance at 1.1655. CCI just cross 100 line down on daily chart suggesting downside pressures.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.1471
• S2= 1.1416
• S3= 1.1324
• R1= 1.1618
• R2= 1.1710
• R3= 1.1765

Have a great day!

Tue, 28th of October, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday EURUSD hit my short target at 1.2380, even further bottomed at 1.2333, but closed higher at 1.2461. The bias remains bearish. My model is short targeting 1.2280 then 1.2138. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.2495. CCI just cross -100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential bearish view.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.2301
• S2= 1.2141
• S3= 1.1949
• R1= 1.2653
• R2= 1.2845
• R3= 1.3005

GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday the GBPUSD continued it’s bearish scenario. The pair bottomed at 1.5275, closed higher at 1.5534. Early today in Asian session the pair continued it’s bearish momentum, traded around 1.5415 at the time I wrote this comment. My model remains short targeting 1.5262. CCI about to cross -100 line down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressures.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5247
• S2= 1.4960
• S3= 1.4645
• R1= 1.5849
• R2= 1.6164
• R3= 1.6451

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY made indecisive movement yesterday.  The pair opened and closed at almost the same prive (93.22 and 93.23), formed a Doji formation on daily chart. My model remains short and still targeting 90.89. Immediate resistance is seen at 94.15. CCI in neutral area on 4h chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 92.02
• S2= 90.81
• S3= 89.58
• R1= 94.46
• R2= 95.69
• R3= 96.90

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF was corrected lower yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.1515 and closed at 1.1566. However we are still in bullish scenario. There might be some downside corrections as daily CCI is about to cross 100 line down, but the pair is still in bullish scenario and any downside movement should be seen as consolidation. My model remains long targeting 1.1855. Immediate support is seen at 1.1559 followed by 1.1515 (yesterday’s low).

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.1483
• S2= 1.1401
• S3= 1.1287
• R1= 1.1679
• R2= 1.1793
• R3= 1.1875

Have a great day!

Mon, 24 Oct

By Johan Kriek (jckriek@fxinstructor.com)

Mon, 27th of October, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD continued it’s bearish scenario on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.2497 and closed at 1.2623. From long term point of view on monthly chart the pair is now targeting 1.2138 (50% Fibonacci retracement from 0.8225 to 1.6038). My model goes short targeting 1.2480 then 1.2380. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.2690 followed by 1.2740. CCI just cross -100 line down on monthly chart suggesting a potential bearish view.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.2422
• S2= 1.2221
• S3= 1.1946
• R1= 1.2898
• R2= 1.3173
• R3= 1.3374

GBPUSD Outlook
We had a very unusual market movement on Friday. The GBPUSD moved about 1000 pips! The pair bottomed at 1.5262 but closed higher at 1.5903. Early today in Asian session the pair continue to traded lower around 1.5707 at the time I wrote this comment. The pair seemed to ignore all technical indicators/oscillators that suggest the pair is now already in a very extreme oversold area and need some upside corrections. My model goes short. From long term Fibonacci study on monthly chart the pair is now targeting 1.4548 area (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 1.0463 to 2.1161). Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5895.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5344
• S2= 1.4785
• S3= 1.4309
• R1= 1.6379
• R2= 1.6855
• R3= 1.7414

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY also made a huge movement on Friday. The pair hit my short target at 95.73 and bottomed far below at 90.89 and closed higher at 94.30. Early today in Asian session the pair was traded around 93.80 at the time I wrote this comment. My model remains short targeting 90.89 (Friday’s low). CCI just cross -100 line down on monthly chart suggesting a potential bearish view.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 90.80
• S2= 87.30
• S3= 83.72
• R1= 97.88
• R2= 101.46
• R3= 104.96

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF continued to push higher on Friday but with less power than I had expected. The pair topped at 1.1748 and closed at 1.1668. My model remains long and still targeting 1.1855. Immediate support is seen at 1.1559. CCI in neutral area and heading down both on hourly and 4h chart suggesting a potential downside corrections.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.1516
• S2= 1.1364
• S3= 1.1248
• R1= 1.1784
• R2= 1.1900
• R3= 1.2052

Have a great day!