2009 May

Sat, 30th of May, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Remember my EURUSD analysis on May 23th? (just scroll down if you forget) I said that up to the third week of May the pair had significant bullish momentum and could continue throughout the rest of the month and might targeting higher bullish targets: 1.4173 (target 1), 1.4350 (target 2), 1.4716 (target 3). So far, my bullish scenario is still on the right track. After break above 1.4050 area yesterday, the pair continued it’s bullish momentum, topped at 1.4167 and closed at 1.4136. We can say that the first bullish target, 1.4173 (50% Fibo Retracement of 1.6037 – 1.2327) has been hit yesterday, so my attention now is on the second target, 1.4350 area which hopefully can be reached on the upcoming week. We might have some downside corrections next week since 1.4173 area is an important resistance of major movement, but as long as the pair stay above 1.4050 we can expect further bullish continuation scenario. See you guys next week and have a great weekend!

Fri, 29th of May, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
After corrected lower in the last three days, the EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday. This is not a surprise for me since the medium outlook remains bullish. On h4 chart below we have rectangle formation (1.4050 – 1.3850) indicating consolidation. Be patient. We are still in no trading zone in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3981 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum testing key resistance level 1.4050. Break above that level should continue the bullish scenario towards 1.4173. Initial support at 1.3850 and 1.3736. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.3827
• S2= 1.3715
• S3= 1.3638
• R1= 1.4016
• R2= 1.4093
• R3= 1.4205

GBPUSD Outlook
GBPUSD made another indecisive movement yesterday. On daily chart below we can see that the pair has been showing no clear direction in the last four days. If we look at weekly chart, we will see a Doji formation during this week. I think we are still in no trading zone. However the medium outlook remains bullish. Key resistance level at 1.6000. Consistent movement above that area should trigger further bullish momentum. Immediate support at 1.5850 followed by 1.5750. CCI about to cross the 100 line down suggesting a potential downside pressure.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5859
• S2= 1.5778
• S3= 1.5702
• R1= 1.6016
• R2= 1.6092
• R3= 1.6173

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY had significant bullish momentum yesterday. The pair break above key level 96.60/70, topped at 97.22 and closed at 96.83. The price need to stay consistently above 96.60/70 area in order to continue it’s bullish scenario towards 97.90 area. Movement below 96.60/70 would lead us into no trading zone. CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 95.62
• S2= 94.41
• S3= 93.61
• R1= 97.63
• R2= 98.43
• R3= 99.64

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF continued it’s bearish scenario yesterday, but still unable to move consistently below 1.0810 key support area. This fact keep us in no trading zone in nearest term. Break below 1.0810 could trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.0700 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0870 – 1.0910 area. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0778
• S2= 1.0716
• S3= 1.0629
• R1= 1.0927
• R2= 1.1014
• R3= 1.1076

Have a great day!

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is our Probability Study for May 28, 2009, as analyzed today in our Live Forex Trading Room.

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Thu, 28th of May, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday I said about battle between buyers and sellers reflected on resistance line at 1.4050 and trendline support on hourly chart, and the battle was won by the sellers as the trendline support violated to the downside. This fact should trigger further bearish pressure testing key support level at 1.3736 area in nearest term. However, for me this is not the best time to trade since bullish outlook of medium term still intact and this bearish momentum still considered as counter trend movement/correction of the medium term trend. CCI just cross the 100 line down on daily chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.3767
• S2= 1.3708
• S3= 1.3592
• R1= 1.3942
• R2= 1.4058
• R3= 1.4117

GBPUSD Outlook
After breakout from the rectangle area (1.5966), yesterday the GBPUSD had bullish momentum, topped at 1.6085 but the bullish power seemed very limited as the the pair closed lower at 1.5955. I think we are now back in the no trading zone. However, if the price consistently move above 1.6000 area today, we might see further upside pressure testing 1.6125 area. Immediate support is seen at 1.5922 (yesterday’s low). Break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure towards 1.5850 area. CCI just cross the 100 line down on h4 chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5889
• S2= 1.5824
• S3= 1.5726
• R1= 1.6052
• R2= 1.6150
• R3= 1.6215

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY had moderate bullish momentum yesterday. We still have minor bullish channel seen on h4 chart with 96.60/70 resistance level to test. Immediate resistance is seen at 95.50. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum. Initial support at 94.50 area. CCI just cross the 100 line up on h4 chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 94.80
• S2= 94.30
• S3= 93.96
• R1= 95.64
• R2= 95.98
• R3= 96.48

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF was corrected higher yesterday. On hourly chart below we can see that after failed to break below 1.0810 support (triple bottom) the pair had a bullish momentum. The key level at this phase is 1.0930. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.1010. CCI just cross the -100 line up on daily chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0849
• S2= 1.0769
• S3= 1.0729
• R1= 1.0969
• R2= 1.1009
• R3= 1.1089

Have a great day!

Wed, 27th of May, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD attempted to continue it’s bearish correction yesterday, bottomed at 1.3859 but further downside momentum was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.3983. On hourly chart below we can see that the trendline support did a good job preventing further bearish attack. At this phase, it seems like the battle between buyers and sellers is technically reflected on 1.4050 resistance line and the trendline support. Break above 1.4050 could trigger further bullish continuation towards 1.4173 while break below the trendline support could trigger further bearish correction testing 1.3825 and 1.3736 key support level area. I think we still in no trading zone in nearest term but remain bullish in medium term. CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.3887
• S2= 1.3792
• S3= 1.3725
• R1= 1.4049
• R2= 1.4116
• R3= 1.4211

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD had indecisive movement yesterday. The pair attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.5777 but further downside attack was rejected as the pair whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.5923. On hourly chart below we can see that the pair has been moving in rectangle area indicating consolidation phase after significant bullish momentum. Breakout to the upside of the rectangle area (1.5966) could trigger further bullish continuation towards 1.6050 area. Immediate support is seen at 1.5880 followed by 1.5830. CCI about to cross the 100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5811
• S2= 1.5699
• S3= 1.5622
• R1= 1.6000
• R2= 1.6077
• R3= 1.6189

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY didn’t make significant movement yesterday. It looks like the pair is consolidating now. On hourly chart below we have ascending triangle formation indicating a potential bullish scenario if the triangle violated to the upside (also remember the “hammer” formation seen on Friday) testing key level at 96.60/70 area. CCI just cross the 100 line up on h4 chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 94.63
• S2= 94.25
• S3= 94.01
• R1= 95.25
• R2= 95.49
• R3= 95.87

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF made another indecisive movement yesterday. On hourly chart below we can see strong support at 1.0810 area (triple bottom) still hold. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.0740 area. Immediate resistance at 1.0870. CCI heading down towards -100 line on h4 chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0792
• S2= 1.0748
• S3= 1.0682
• R1= 1.0902
• R2= 1.0968
• R3= 1.1012

Have a great day!

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for May 26, 2009, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/26-may-eurusd-probability-study-no-trade-zone/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Please have a look at the charts below:

The major trend is still bullish as we can see on the chart above. I have identified the most activy cycle within this major trend which is known as the current

On the 4hr chart above I have identified the most active cycle within the current trend. This cycle is known as the 60minute trend – indicated with the green lines

Here we can see the bullish 60minute trend is all it’s glory. As long as this one remains bullish we will have a bullish probability..

Of course, the 1 hour stochastic is bearish at this stage and therefore we have a no trade zone. This means that market rhythm is trending lower.

I will therefore stand aside until the 1hour stochastic gives me a bullish cross. Never trade against the trend..

Good luck

Johan

Tue, 26th of May, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD bullish momentum was paused yesterday. I think this is a normal correction after significant bullish momentum last week. We might have further downside correction, but in medium term outlook as long as the pair stay above 1.3736 area, the scenario remains bullish. The bias is neutral is in nearest term. Immediate support is remains at 1.3950 followed by 1.3825. Initial resistance at 1.4050. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4173. CCI in overbought area and heading down on daily chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.3967
• S2= 1.3923
• S3= 1.3890
• R1= 1.4044
• R2= 1.4077
• R3= 1.4121

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD bullish momentum also paused yesterday. The rising wedge formation on hourly chart below has been violated to the downside indicating potential further downside correction. I think we are now still in no trading zone. Immediate support is seen at 1.5780. Break below that area could trigger further bearish correction towards 1.5680 area. Initial resistance at 1.5950. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.6050 area. CCI in overbought area and heading down on daily chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5846
• S2= 1.5787
• S3= 1.5742
• R1= 1.5950
• R2= 1.5995
• R3= 1.6054

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY made indecisive movement yesterday by opened and closed at almost the same price. The bias is neutral in nearest term but the Hammer formation appeared on on Friday should remains a potential upside correction warning. Immediate resistance is seen at 95.18 (yesterday’s high) followed by 95.65. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction towards 96.60/70 key resistance level. Initial support at 94.41 (yesterday’s low). CCI in neutral area on h4 chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 94.42
• S2= 94.03
• S3= 93.65
• R1= 95.19
• R2= 95.57
• R3= 95.96

USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday. On daily chart below we have inverted hammer formation indicating a potential upside correction. The bias remains neutral in nearest term and I think we are now in no trading zone. Immediate support is seen at 1.0810. Initial resistance at 1.0950. CCI in neutral area on hourly chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0801
• S2= 1.0780
• S3= 1.0746
• R1= 1.0856
• R2= 1.0890
• R3= 1.0911

Have a great day!

Mon, 25th of May, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD continued it’s bullish momentum on Friday. The pair topped at 1.4049 and closed at 1.4000. On hourly chart below we have a valid bullish channel indicating strong bullish momentum during last week movement. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4050. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 1.4173. However CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for a potential downside rebound testing 1.3950. Break below that area could lead us into no trading zone and could trigger further bearish correction towards 1.3825 area.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.3909
• S2= 1.3818
• S3= 1.3748
• R1= 1.4070
• R2= 1.4140
• R3= 1.4231

GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD had a moderate bullish momentum on Friday. I have showed you the “hanging man” formation on daily chart which should be a potential warning about bullish exhaustion and some minor bearish correction. On hourly chart below we also have a rising wedge formation which also suggesting a potential bearish reversal/correction scenario if the wedge violated to the downside. I think we are in no trading zone in nearest term but remain in bullish mode in medium term. Immediate support is seen at 1.5850 followed by 1.5780 area. CCI about to cross the 100 line down on both hourly and h4 chart suggesting a potential downside pressure.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5791
• S2= 1.5678
• S3= 1.5603
• R1= 1.5979
• R2= 1.6054
• R3= 1.6167

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY was corrected higher on Friday. On hourly chart below we can see that the bullish correction happened after “inverted hammer” formed during bearish momentum. This should be a warning of potential further upside correction. I think we are in no trading zone in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen at 94.89 (Friday’s high). Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction. Initial support at 93.80/50 area. CCI about to cross the -100 line up on daily chart suggesting a potential upside pressure.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 94.12
• S2= 93.45
• S3= 93.07
• R1= 95.17
• R2= 95.55
• R3= 96.22

USDCHF Outlook
As I had expected, the USDCHF continued it’s bearish momentum on Friday. The pair hit my bearish target at 1.0810 and closed at 1.0845. However we have hammer on h4 chart below which should be a potential warning of upside correction. The bias is is neutral in nearest term but remains bearish in medium term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0850 – 1.0900 area. Break above that area could trigger further bullish correction. Initial support at 1.0810 (Friday’s low). Break below that area could trigger bearish continuation towards 1.0740 area. CCI just cross the -100 line up on hourly chart suggesting a potential upside rebound.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0791
• S2= 1.0738
• S3= 1.0666
• R1= 1.0916
• R2= 1.0988
• R3= 1.1041

Have a great day!

Sat, 23th of May, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
So far, up to the third week of May, EURUSD has been showing significant bullish momentum, and there could be further bullish potential throughout the rest of the month, and further down the road. One of the common questions during bullish market condition is what are the next potential upside targets? Targets are projected in many ways and I like to use Fibonacci study and historical levels. As you can see in my h4 chart below, I have 3 potential targets if the bullish scenario continue. The first and the nearest is 1.4173 (50% Fibo retracement of 1.6037 – 1.2327). The second is 1.4351 and the third target is 1.4716. The last two targets are historical levels, December 2008 highs. Is that mean that EURUSD will reach these targets? Of course not. I find that one of the biggest mistake make by traders (including me in my early months trading forex) is the mindset that we think we know the future and treat projections/predictions just like some kind of prophecy that must or will happen and the market must agree with us. That is a big mistake. The truth is, no one know the future and when we finally find that our projection is wrong and the market go against us, simply admit it and make adjustments with the latest market situation. Inability to admit our own mistakes only make things worse. So,  will these targets be reached in upcoming days/weeks? I hope so but I am more than ready to change my mind and adjust with newest market condition.  Have a great weekend and see you guys next week