2009 December

Simultaneous Release at www.thegeekknows.com

Hi all,

well this is it! The last post of 2009. How’s preparations for the parties?

If you ask my honest opinion, one is better off preparing for parties! I have circled the past few days’ candles and we can see the wild ranging party of the EUR/USD.

Looking at the sharp green candle today, the surprising fact is as of now, i have not received any report of anything significant to have caused that. This is a great example of how low volume conditions may result in unexpected spikes.

These are instances whereby proper money management may save your account if you are always on the wrong train!

Gold and oil are pretty much flat. Gold is at $1090+ while oil is at $77+.

Take a look at my chart above and observe the lines. In light of the low volume, technical levels may play a stronger role and I REALLY LIKE IT WHEN MY CHART WORKS! ( Ha, bet you didn’t see that coming eh? )

Do be reminded that we have unemployment claims for the US up next and further spikes may be caused in view of the light volume.

Bullish pressure may test 1.4445/80 while bearish relief may seek 1.4400/1.4362.

***

Alright. This marks the end of 2009 for TheGeekKnows.com. See you in 2010 for the EUR/USD Weekly Review. I hope to serve you even better then

Me, the one and only Geeky Koala will like to wish you and your families a great upcoming 2010 and may you harvest more and more pips!

Trade safe and party safe!

Read more Forex Articles and Views by The Koala at www.thegeekknows.com

Follow me on twitter

EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4272 but closed higher at 1.4338. The pair is still consolidating in range area. I think we are in no trading zone now as direction is not clear in nearest term. Another way to trade in this kind of market is to short around 1.4420/50 or long around 1.4250 with a tight stop loss. We need a break from the range area to see clearer direction.  Break above 1.4420/50 area should be seen as bearish failure and trigger further bullish momentum towards 1.4600 even 1.4800 area. Break below 1.4250 should trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.4170 – 1.4130 before testing 1.4000 area.

EURJPY Forecast

My strategy to long around 131.75 worked perfectly yesterday. Price topped at 132.77, closed at 132.51 and traded around 132.80 at the time I wrote this comment. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 133.50 area. Immediate support at 132.50 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

GBPJPY  Forecast

The GBPJPY had a significant bullish momentum after breakout from range area, as you can see on my h4 chart below, topped at 148.93 and closed at 148.56. The bias is bullish in nearest term but we seem to have a good resistance around 149.05 area. We need a clear break above that area to continue the bullish towards 150.30 area. Immediate support at 148.00 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

AUDUSD Forecast

The AUDUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart but had a significant bullish momentum earlier today in Asian session by break above the trendline resistance. This fact should trigger further bullish momentum targeting 0.9020. Immediate support at 0.8930 area. Break below that area should be seen as a false breakout which should trigger significant bearish momentum towards 0.8850 area and keep the bearish scenario intact.

GBPUSD  Forecast

The GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday. Price attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.5832 but surprisingly whipsawed to the upside, topped at 1.6092 and closed at 1.6076. On h4 chart below we can see that price is now testing the upper line of the bearish channel which is a serious threat to the bearish outlook. However, as long as the bearish channel valid, the bearish scenario should remains intact and actually the upper line of the bearish channel area is a good place for a short position with a tight stop loss above the bearish channel. A good technical set up and risk-reward ratio.  A violation to the bearish channel should be seen as bearish failure and could trigger further bullish scenario towards 1.6250 area. Immediate support at 1.6020 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum towards 1.5920 area and keep the bearish scenario intact.

USDJPY Forecast

The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 92.76 but closed lower at 92.41. The bias is neutral in nearest term and we need a consistent move above 92.50 area to continue bullish scenario at least testing 93.00 area. However I am still in buy mode for this pair. Immediate support at 92.30 – 91.80 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone.

USDCHF Forecast

The USDCHF made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. Well, a Doji in a range area. Surely a no trading zone for me. The best strategy at this phase is to short around 1.0450 area or to long around 1.0230 area with a tight stop loss.  We need a clear break from the range area to see clearer direction.

Simultaneous Release at www.thegeekknows.com

Hello mates!

With the New Year almost upon us, things are definitely getting interesting.

As i mentioned earlier, the low volume season probably turned the currency pair into a pinball at the mercy of various news and economic reactions and technical levels.

S&P 500 plays along in a pinball game of it’s own, hitting the support of 1120 before it bounces back.

Oil remains slightly bullish and is currently at around $78.

Gold in the meanwhile continues to be sold in light of all the general optimism of the economy and perhaps also due to year end closure profit taking. It is currently slightly below $1090.

***

Now you koalas who have been following the news and economic releases diligently will know that the US Chicago PMI came in higher than expected and thus the bullish run of the US Dollar we are seeing now.

Hey hey hey. What about the S&P 500 you ask. Shouldn’t positive sentiments bring that up too?

Ah ha! This is the ingenuity of the market. Risk averse folks are probably closing off their positions in light of the upcoming holiday and the GMAC problem. There are reports stating that the home and auto lender is in discussions with the US government for a third bailout. Something investors probably won’t like to hear. This serves to remind us that the 2008 financial crisis is not really over yet. Remember, you heard it first here at TheGeeKnows.com

The relationship of the S&P 500 and the EUR/USD has became rather tricky these days and hence please be extra careful.

We have not come to the end of the economic releases as we still have unemployment claims for the US tomorrow. Watch out for that. Jobs are definitely important to an economy and you can read my previous article about the unemployment crisis in the US to find out more. Besides that, most of Europe goes on holiday tomorrow too. Probably extra low volume conditions to be expected.

Bullish comeback may bring us to test 1.4325 / 62 while a bearish push may drop towards 1.4260/00.

***

My Monday blues are coming back! Vacation leave ends on Sunday. Be prepared for nasty articles on Mondays again ok? L O L Alright. Run along and harvest some pips but please protect your profits and trade safe.

Read more Forex Articles and Views by The Koala at www.thegeekknows.com

Follow me on twitter

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Here follows a probability study analysis of the GBP USD for 30 Dec 2009:

Levels:

60 minute trend resistance at 1.6040

Bullish Probability above 1.6040

Significant resistance resides at 1.5920

Significant support resides at 1.5690 (previous significant low)

Good luck!

Johan

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Here follows a probability study analysis of the EUR USD for 30 Dec 2009 by Johan Kriek

Note: Even though the bullish 60minute trend has been violated yesterday, the direction of highest probability remains bullish. Watch this video to see why

Levels:

60 minute trend support at 1.4315

Bearish Probability below 1.4315

Significant resistance resides at 1.4470

Good luck!

Johan

EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.4457 but  further bullish momentum was rejected as price whipsawed to the downside, bottomed at 1.4331 and closed at 1.4353. On h4 chart below we can see that was a case of a false breakout from 1.4420 – 1.4250 range area which usually trigger significant bearish momentum, at least testing 1.4250 area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario towards 1.4170 – 1.4130 area. Immediate resistance at 1.4420 – 1.4450 area.