Today we have Eurozone inflation figures in the form of CPI at 09:00GMT. Consensus calls for a rise to 3.9% from 3.6%. Should inflation be higher than the previous 3.6% or even higher than consensus, we can expect another surge in the EUR/USD as this figure will certainly confirm Trichet’s ambitions of raising interest rates. Trichet is clearly the winner in this match as the Fed’s Bernanke shows no interest in raising rates.

The high price of oil and rising unemployment and the looming second wave of the credit crunch does not spell moonshine and roses for the US economy.

Herewith the Probability Studies for today:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Price has clearly violated the bearish current trend resistance (blue line) which resembles a falling wedge upper line on the daily chart. This pattern has now signalled a continuation of the preceding bullish daily trend with a possibility of price reaching 1.6400. Nevertheless, now that price has breached the consolidation pattern, we can expect a trending market for weeks to come. From an intraday probability study point of view, we would first wait for the 1 hour stochastic to cross bullish before we’ll have a suitable bullish trading condition

Have a look at the wedge on the Daily Chart attached as well:

We will have an interesting week with the US Unemployment data on Fiday the cherry on the cake..

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