BoE and ECB key today. Here we come!
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The weak data from the EuroZONE and UK we’ve seen lately as well as the hawkish comments from the FED’s Hoenig emphasized the strengthening bias of the Greenback. At 11:00 AM GMT and 11:45 AM GMT the BoE and ECB will release their Interest Rate decisions and any dovish comments can spark a Sterling and Euro decline that could be volatile and far reaching – even if both of them keep rates on hold. Therefore be warned!
Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:
EUR/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Price is still trending within the channels of the bearish 60minute trend but the hourly indicators are mixed, therefore the no trade zone. As soon as price takes out a few lows we will most probably have bearish crosses on the indicators which will place the EUR in a suitable bearish trading condition. Keep and eye on the ECB today. Although they are expected to keep rates on hold, any DOVISH comments can spark another decline of the EUR..
USD/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Price is clearly finding significant support at the bullish Current Trend Support line (blue line) at roundabout 104.15. Should this support line be violated to the downside we can continue with the bearish probability. Just make sure the hourly indicators are bearish as well. On the other hand, price can still bounce on this Current Trend support line and continue bullish and as soon as the bearish 60minute trend resistance line is taken out we will have a suitable bullish trading condition
GBP/USD – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Wait for the indicators to cross bearish before attempting any trades. Also the rate decision from the BoE is a growing concern, so keep an eye on that as well as they are expected to keep rates on hold but any dovish comments can send the Sterling down South further
GBP/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Price is finding serious support at the Bullish Current Trend Support line (203.30) , therefore the bullish indicators. If we see a significant bounce here and ultimately the bearish 60minute trend is violated to the upside, we will have suitable bullish trading condition on our hands. Also, if the current trend support line is violated to the downside we can continue with the bearish probability.
EUR/JPY – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Due to the fact that the hourly indicators are bullish, we have a no trade zone. Wait for them to cross bearish before attempting any trades
EUR/GBP – Bearish Probability. The bearish 60minute trend is still intact. Wait for the hourly indicators to cross bearish before attempting any trades
EUR/CHF – No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Price is still in the process of defining a new bearish 60minute trend and any new peaks should be honoured even if the bearish 60minute trend is violated to the upside. Just make sure the indicators are bearish as well. Should price keep on making new highs we will stand back and wait for a new possible bullish probability to be confirmed
USD/CHF – No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. As soon as the indicators cross bullish we will have a bullish trading condition on our hands. Again, if the 60minute trend is violated to the downside we will stand back
USD/CAD – Bearish Probability. Wait for market rhythm to trend below 1.0100 before trading this one as price must confirm that a bounce occurred on the violated previous Major Trend support which is now a significant resistance line (orange line). Nevertheless, the indicators are bearish..
AUD/USD – Bearish Probability. We have a bearish 60minute trend with overbought indicators. As soon the as the Stochastic gives us a cross in a bearish direction, we will have a bearish trading condition on our hands. Keep in mind that the Current Trend Support line at 0.9315 IS significant (Blue line) and price can briefly consolidate at this level or a bounce can occur
