To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for August 11, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

We had a no trade zone as the EUR converged with significant support. Although no trade were entered, we discussed the possible move expectations if price should bounce or break lower. A bearish bias was clearly intact as a possible bullish probability was rapidly failing.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/11-aug-probability-studies-uk-inflation-watch/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Last week the Bucky retaliated with a vengeance. It was full out war against the other currencies as the Dollar stepped up to the plate, continuing its broad based strengthening. Major support levels in the EUR and GBP were violated in spectacular fashion. The hot knife through butter effect..

Due to the fact that major support has been breached in all pairs vs the bucky, we can now expect a whole cycle change for the next couple of years

Have a look at the intermediate support level which has been violated. Before this level was violated, the EUR still had a fighting chance against the Dollar but now all hopes for a EUR comeback has flown out of the proverbial window…

EUR Probability Study for today:

Direction of Highest Probability for Major Trend - BEARISH
Direction of Highest Probability for Intraday Trend - BULLISH

Intraday Probability Study:

No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. By the looks of things we might see consolidation/retrace as the bearish 60minute trend resistance line has now been violated. Even though the violation is not confirmed yet, the bearish probability is no more. Remember that we are not saying that the market will retrace all the way back to 1.6figure, but according to the probability study technique the market moves in cycles and we might see an intraday bullish cycle/probability before the next short move

Currently the EUR is bouncing on the daily support at 1.4920 (attached below) Keep an eye on this one…It is 30 pips away. If it’s violated the bearish trading condition will resume with brute force

On the economic front today we have UK inflation figures in the form of the PPI so keep an eye on this one as it will give us an indication of the future movements of the Cable as well.

We wish you a great trading week ahead and please feel free to come and say hello in the Live Trading Room

Johan Kriek
jkriek@fxinstructor.com

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for August 7, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/07-august-probability-studies-boe-ecb-decides-on-rates-today/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

All eyes and ears will be on the above announcements and we can expect price to consolidate well into the European session as investors await the decisions.

Although Trichet has remained moderately on the Hawkish side, recent weak economic data suggest that he might affirm a more neutral stance. Therefore, if the ECB leaves rates unchanged at 4.25% the press conference will be pretty significant in the sense that a Hawkish tone could spark a rally in the EUR and a Dovish tone a possible continuation of the recent weakening we’ve seen.

Across the channel in the BoE is also expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.00% and due to the fact that no statements will be issued we can only expect serious movements if the BoE cuts or hikes. We will have to wait for the release of the vote count for this meeting to see how many voters were dovish/hawkish

On that note, here’s your Probability Studies:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. The no trade zone might only be temporary as price is still well within the ranges of the bearish 60minute trend. All we have to do is patiently wait for market rhythm to trend lower once again to force a bearish cross on the 1 hour Stochastic. Should the bearish 60minute trend be violated, we will have a bullish probability which might be limited to the significant 1.5500 area (bearish Current trend support)

GBP/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. The 1 hour Stochastic has clearly crossed bearish but the cross still has to be confirmed with the next 60minute bar/candle. Market rhythm is clearly starting to trend lower but keep a close eye on the market when the BoE decides on Interest Rates as those announcements can have a probability changing effect. Try to minimize your risk until the releases come out and the market normalize once again.

If you are unsure or new to the FX industry or have any trading related questions please join us in the Live Trading Room where you can trade the market Live with us utilizing the Probability Study Methodology

Good luck and happy pipping today!

Johan Kriek
jkriek@fxinstructor.com

“If there is no enemy within, the enemy outside can do us no harm”  -  African proverb

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for August 6, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/06-august-probability-studies-less-hawkish-fed-rates-on-hold/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Well, well, well. The Fed kept Interest Rates unchanged at 2.00% as expected but the accompanying statement seems less hawkish than the one released in June but does not change the Fed’s overall outlook for the US economy

The statement also said energy and commodities prices have pushed inflation to “high” levels, which should moderate this year and the next, “but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain.”

We as FX traders are always interested in the way forward in terms of Interest Rates and although the FOMC clearly stated that they will not hike rates it does not necessarily mean that they will cut, so it is up to the other world countries to step up to the plate here and if they don’t, then investors out there will certainly acknowledge that the situation in the US is “less bad” than the UK or Eurozone for instance…

That said, here’s today’s Probability Studies:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. The bearish 60minute trend is still intact and therefore the bearish probability. All we have to do now is wait for market rhythm to trend a bit lower so that we can get a bearish cross on the 1 hour Stochastic which in turn will present us with a suitable bearish trading condition. Bearishness eez…

GBP/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. The bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside, therefore the bullish probability. The interesting fact here is that we do not have a trading condition yet due to the fact that the hourly indicators are bearish. Should price move back into the violated 60minute trend’s channel, we will have to adjust the 60minute trend to reflect the recent lower significant peak at 1.9595

Also on the Cable, we have a Head and Shoulders pattern on the Compressed Daily/Weekly charts (Below) which still indicates that price can move much lower if the neckline is violated (1.9400)

Happy Trading !

Johan Kriek
jkriek@fxinstructor.com

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for August 5, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/05-august-probability-studies-fomc-rate-decision-awaited/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

At 18h15 GMT later today the FOMC will decide on Interest Rates. As we all know, Interest Rates are the most influential factor of determining future value when it comes to Exchange Rates.

Therefore, even though the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at 2.00%, we will watch the accompanying statement very closely as any hawkishness from the Fed will surely spark a renewed rally in the Bucky.

Even though we have other fundamentals today such as UK Services PMI, Industrial Production, Manufacturing, Eurozone Retail Sales and US ISM non-manufacturing, the FOMC rate decision will be the most significant. So if the market consolidates for the better part of the European session, investors eagerly await the Fed’s decision

On a Technical note, herewith the Probability Studies for today:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bearish Probability. Although the 60minute trend is bearish, price is finding serious horizontal support at 1.5520 and price must first violate this support and confirm it from a market rhythm perspective before we can trade the EUR.

Have a look at the compressed daily chart below. Serious support resides at 1.5520. A hawkish Fed later today might cause this support to be violated and spark a new bear trend for the next few months or even years.

But…be careful, the violation MUST be confirmed as we can still see a significant bounce. After all, wouldn’t it be great to trade off a serious support like this?

Good luck with your trading today and if you have questions come and say Hi in the Live Trading Room today

Johan Kriek