Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for November 20, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for November 19, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/19-november-probability-studies-midday-update/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key Notes:

- BoE: 9-0 vote for 150bps cut, signals more to come

Key Events still to come:

- US Housing figures

- US CPI

- FOMC meeting minutes

Probability Studies:

The EUR is still situated in a no trade zone as price cannot violate the bearish current trend at 1.2660 to the upside to signal a confirmed continuation of the bullish probability. Should 1.2600 be taken out then a fully fledged bearish trading condition will unfold. Watch this space… We might see a serious breakout soon

The bearish probability is still intact here even though market rhythm is trending higher. 1.5115 is significant resistance and a bounce here followed by a bearish 1 hour stochastic cross will give me another bearish trading condition. The pattern you can see there is called a rising wedge and it signals a breakout to the downside. Should this pattern fail and price subsequently violate the bearish 60minute trend to the upside then we will have a bullish probability

No Trade Zone, bullish probability. As long as the 60minute trend remains bullish we will have a bullish probability. A 1hour stochastic cross will give us another trading condition as well

No Trade Zone, bearish probability. The 1 hour stochastic is still bullish and I can see how price is finding resistance at the 60minute trend resistance line at 97.00

A break to the downside will force a bearish cross on the 1 hour stoch and then the bearish trading condition will unfold. Anything above 97.00 will signal a bullish probability

No Trade Zone. Price is now converging with the bullish current trend support and the bearish 60minute trend resistance line and therefore we have the triangle

A closer look here signifies that the triangle is symmetric and therefore a possible break to the downside can occur but we have to wait for confirmation

EUR/GBP - no trade zone, bullish probability. The bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside and it seems that price is now finding support at previous violated resistance (60minute trend resistance)

A bullish 1 hour stoch cross will confirm a higher trough and a possible bullish trading condition. Remember that that the major trend is still bullish after the volatile breakout of the broadening formation we can see on the daily chart

I hope you find this update useful as I can see a lot of volatility to come today in the US session..

Have a great one!

Johan Kriek

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for November 18, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for November 14, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key Notes:

- Paulson changes $700bln bailout plan to prop up consumer credit, equities sell off again

- GBP record low vs USD etc and violates 25yr rising wedge

- Dovish King signals more rate cuts in December

Probability Studies:

Bearish probability but unfortunately a no trade zone as the 1 hour stoch is bullish. If price remains within the bearish 60minute trend and the 1 hour stoch crosses bearish then we will have another bearish trading condition. A violation of the bearish 60minute trend to the upside at 1.2520 will present me with a bullish bias (short-term to say the least)

Look at the chart below:

We can see here how the symmetrical triangle on the EUR has been violated to the downside. The target for this move is about 1.1800 ..but… (there’s always a “but”)

Should the bearish probability change to bullish if the 60minute trend is violated to the upside then price CAN come back all the way to find resistance at previously violated support by converging with the violated lower line of the triangle. A confirmation of this breakout will be very healthy as it will rule out a serious retrace if price suddenly breaks lower

Same as EUR, No trade zone but still within a bearish probability. We will have to see if the 1 hour stochastic gives us a bearish cross below 1.5150 as it resembles the violated lower line of the 25-year old rising wedge you can see below. The target of this break is well below parity to the dollar.. and don’t forget that if price moves above 1.5150 the breakout would have failed and then we can put our tin foil hats back in the closet

Just an interesting fact:

If you have a look at the EURGBP break out below you can see why the EUR did not weaken as significantly as the GBP yesterday. The broadening formation’s breakout was furious and far reaching as the EUR strengthened against the GBP.. This breakout can also be confirmed so be cautious

I hope you had a great trading day yesterday and may the flow of pips continue today. Always remember to trade in the direction of highest probability. If you need a probability study on any pair just pop in at the LTR and ask us

Regards

Johan

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for November 12, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for November 11, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/11-november-probability-studies/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key Notes:

- China Stimulus package short lived as GM falters

- Possible continuation of the risk aversion we’ve seen in the Asian markets

Probability Studies:

No Trade Zone, bearish probability. The bearish probability took effect as soon as price violated the bullish 60minute trend to the downside at roundabout 1.2740

Should the low at 1.2675 be taken out and confirmed we will have a nice bearish trading condition. Bombs away!

*watch the ZEW survey at 10AM GMT today..

Although the 1 hour stochastic has crossed bullish the cross is not confirmed yet. Should the stoch stay in this “state” then the next 1 hour candle will confirm this for me and present bullish trading opportunities

The bearish probability on the GBP is prevailing and a bearish cross on the 1 hour stoch will present me with a bearish trading condition as well

The JPY clearly bounced on the bearish current trend resistance line (blue line) but the intermediate bullish 60minute trend must be violated first before we will have a fully fledged bearish trading condition once again. This intermediate trend is indicated with the dashed lines and expect support at 97.50

If you have any questions please contact me in the Live Trading Room or just pop in to say “howzit”

Enjoy your piphunting today!

Johan Kriek

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Notes:

- BoE and ECB slashed interest rates with 150bps and 50bps respectively yesterday

- US NFP today will be very significant. Employment rate is expected to increase to 6.3%

Probability Studies:

The ECB cut rates with 50bps and price started to trend lower very slowly after the initial reaction. The direction of highest probability is still bearish as long as price stays within the ranges of the bearish 60minute trend. A bearish stoch cross will place the EUR in a suitable bearish trading condition

Still bullish. I know the range of the 60minute trend is a bit large but this still reflects the most active cycle within the underlying current trend according to the probability study technique. A bullish cross on the 1 hour stoch will place the CHF in a suitable bullish trading condition

Risk aversion is back (moderately I have to say) and therefore the bearish probability. Unfortunately the no trade zone here will only evolve in a bearish trading condition if the stoch cross bearish and confirms it

No Trade Zone, bearish probability. The 60minute trend is still intact though.. Also, we can see a serious Head and Shoulders continuation pattern on the higher time frames:

Here we can see how the neckline has been violated already. The target of this pattern is all the way to around 1.46 figure. It seems that price just came back to test the violated neckline (now resistance) to confirm the break out. It looks like we going to get ample shorting opportunities today on this one

The AUD is bearish as well. The previous bullish 60minute trend has been violated to the downside and we even got lower significant peaks to identify the new bearish 60minute trend. A bearish cross on the 1 hour stochastic will plunge this one in a bearish trading condition once again..

I hope you have a great trading day today and start to your weekend. Amidst all the volatility we have seen during this week the probabilities still prevailed and it always a good thing to limit risky trades by using the direction of highest probability as a trading context

Have a good one!

Johan Kriek