ltan

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Good day koalas!

Yesterday, we saw the EUR/USD dip to the 1.3600s due to apparent risk aversion.

Investors were concerned when reports indicated a drop in foreign demand in US securities. Furthermore, there was apprehension towards any potential curbs to be taken by China and India with regards to their economic growth.

Looking at the EUR/USD, it is recovering from yesterday’s bear attack. It is currently testing the resistance of 1.3740.

On a similar note, the S&P 500 is once again bullish. Positive sentiment with regards to the US economy is apparently strong.

Oil is currently trading at $80+. This again suggests that the risk appetite is strong today.

Gold has risen to $1120+ at the moment.

***

The EU moves closer to having a drawn up plan of aiding Greece in the event of the failure of deficit cutting measures implemented by the Greek government. While investors are probably happy to hear this, we have to look deeper into the situation.

I always believe that the Greek problem won’t be solved easily. Concerns will probably surface with regards to the setback of the Euro Zone’s economy if the aid is required. Furthermore there were different views in the discussion so far on how the aid will be implemented. April and May will probably be testing times as debt redemption of a total of more than 20 billion euros is due for Greece.

Another possible reason for the positive sentiment may be the German ZEW Economic Sentiment coming in slightly better than expected. Furthermore, US Building Permits and Housing Starts came out close to their estimates. Home Sales create much economic activities and hence investors often appreciate a stable or positive housing outlook.

A report stated that economic officials from the Obama administration said today that the unemployment rate will probably not go much lower than the current 9.7% due to the economic outlook. We know that jobs drive consumer spending which in turn drives the economy and hence this unemployment problem in US may be an anchor dragging the recovery.

Folks, Federal Fund Rates will be up next and hence do be careful. Even if nothing unexpected happens, investors will scan, read, magnify, speculate, worry, etc etc over the accompanying statement release and hence be careful!

Tomorrow brings us important news such as the US Producer Price Index as well. Stay focused, alert and plan your trades well.

Bullish momentum may bring us to 1.3800/80.

A bearish comeback may see 1.3680/00.

***

Koalas! I added a site map for your convenience! You will find a list of articles i wrote over the year and more. Hopefully this will help in your navigation around TheGeekKnows.com .

I need to go meet Ms Sleep now. Feeling a little cold lately. I hope it is not the flu bug.

Trade Safely. ( Remember ! Add me on facebooook !! )

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Good Monday Koalas!

Blues getting to you? Kicking dirt into your eyes?

Get angry you dont! Take a deep breath and face the challenge! Life goes on

Yes, you know where this is going to. The EUR/USD is having a bluish Monday of it’s own too. Let us take a look at the current price action.

After testing the strong line of 1.38 last Friday, the EUR/USD took a dive and is currently testing the 1.3680 support. Altogether now, ” We love it when the koala’s chart works.” YES! Nothing beats shameless self praise on a Monday.

On a similar note, the S&P 500 takes a break from a bullish ascend and is heading towards 1140.

Oil drops to $77+. This may indicate that the anticipated recovery may not be here yet as oil can be a clue to the global economy’s health.

Gold remains unaffected at around $1103+. Demand for gold may be holding it steady. As gold is an investment of choice when it comes to stormy financial weather, risk aversion may be present.

***

The TIC Long-Term Purchases report came out much lower than expected today. This report measures the difference between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners and hence it is an indication of foreign demand for US securities.

As the actual data is much lower than expected, risk aversion may be happening as investors seek to make sense of this sharp drop of overseas demand for US securities. Two biggest holders of the US treasuries, China and Japan, reduced their holdings. This is contrary to the positive belief of the pace of recovery for the US economy.

Next up, investors are also concerned with regards to China and now India. These economy giants are sizzling with growth and investors fear of a curb of growth to contain inflation. Furthermore, it is greatly believe that these giants spur the global recovery on and hence any premature curb in growth may extinguish the fragile recovery.

A report i saw today gave me quite a bit to think about. Moody’s Investors Service said that the US and UK are “substantially” closer to losing their AAA credit ratings. This is considering the fact that both nations are spending about 7 percent of the year’s revenue on debt servicing. Keep a look out for this and remember you heard it first here at TheGeekKnows.com ( Unless you read the report yourself too )

Tomorrow brings us a number of economic releases including the important German ZEW Economic Sentiment and the US Building Permits. Be careful of unexpected spikes.

Bullish relief may bring us to 1.3740/800.

Further bearish developments may test the support of 1.3600/550.

***

Woah, a koala recently asked me” With all this articles that you are churning out, how can you manage time? How can you trade?” YES I CAN! When a “chore” is a passion, the meaning of chore disappears. I love writing articles and reviews for koalas. Every time when you send me an email or facebook message to say thanks, i am beaming with a smile

Surely the time must have came from somewhere right? Yap indeed. My issues with Ms Sleep are getting worst. We only spent 4 hours yesterday together.

Gtg! Trade Safely ( Remember ! Add me on facebooook !! )

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Good day to you.

Hope you are enjoying your weekend so far. I always feel that weekends are great for one to calm his trading mind down and to take an unbiased approach at the chart.

In the previous week, i mentioned that we may range around 1.34 – 1.38. Let us take a look now at the EUR/USD chart.

Indeed the week did range between 1.34 – 1.38.

The last 3 days brought about a great bullish trend and it ended after testing the 1.38 line, closing around 1.3760+/-.

The main highlights of the week were the Greek deficit issue and the apparent performance of the US economy. On Friday, the US Core Retail Sales came in better than expected. Investors were generally positive in the US economy and it was evident in the US equities. This helped to keep risk aversion at bay and the currency pair went up probably due to increased risk taking.

As we look towards the new week, i will like to start by reiterating on a few points.

Firstly, even if there was apparently not much new negative developments in the Greek deficit crisis, this was probably due to a lack of media coverage. It is not a sign of the problem having mysteriously disappearing over night. It was reported that next week, EU finance ministers will discuss on the possibility of a Greece bailout using EU Bonds should the situation calls for it. It is my opinion that the Greek deficit crisis goes beyond a simple fix and hence be on a lookout for risk aversion should developments stall. Furthermore Greece still faced the potential problem of having it’s rating cut by rating agency, complicating access to the ECB loans.

China made news again recently as it was reported that the Assistant Commerce Minister of China said that the Chinese inflation is “mild and controllable.” Reports stated that the China Consumer Price growth reached a 16-month high in February. This may prompt the leadership to take further measures against the speculative bubbles. Be on the look out for risk aversion as investors may be worried that a premature removal of stimulus measures may stall the fragile recovery.

Next week brings us a number of important economic releases. Starting from Monday, we have the US TIC Long-Term Purchases. This data shows the difference between local and foreign purchase of US equities and may be an indication of currency demand since the purchases were made in US dollars. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment in the early week may also shed light on the Euro Zone sentiment. Mid week brings us the US Federal Funds Rate and do be prepared for any unexpected developments. Late week brings us the US Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which is a measure of manufacturing sentiment in Philadelphia.

You can find the list of the various economic releases in the Economic Calender below.

From a technical point of view, we are slowly ascending. The bearish momentum seems to have stalled for now and this is indicated in the 200EMA that i have drawn too. See the circle on the 200EMA in the chart above. It is turning flat, instead of the current bearish indication. Nonetheless, bullish fans should not assume that the train will definitely shoot up north as 1.38 can be rather strong.

If nothing adverse happens, we may be ranging between 1.35 -1.4.

Trade safely and do plan your trades well.

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Good day Koalas.

It is CASH THE PIPS FOR BEER day!

With the numerous data released today, we had quite a bullish run up.

As the week comes to a close, let us see how is the currency pair doing so far.

The EUR/USD continues it’s bullish momentum and tested the strong resistance of 1.3800. It has currently retreated to 1.3740. I love it when my chart works!

The S&P 500 made a new high today. This suggests strong positive sentiments. As of now, it has retreated to the 1140s.

Oil stabilizes around $80. Should it close above $80 this week, this may suggest a new phrase of economic recovery.

Gold continues with little activity, valuing at around $1108+.

***

The US Core Retail Sales came in better than expected. Despite poor weather, retail sales were up. Investors see this as a sign of a recovering economy as consumers spend. It is useful to note that the US Core Retail Sales is up for most of the months recently, strengthening the indication of a stronger economy. This may contribute to the positive sentiments surrounding the American economy lately.

Having said so, we must be prudent as the US Unemployment Rate remains high at 9.7%, presenting one of the most difficult challenge to the US economic machine.

Over at the European Union, it has been reported that next week the EU finance ministers will discuss on the possibility of a Greece bailout using EU Bonds should the situation calls for it. It is my opinion that the Greek deficit crisis goes beyond a simple fix and hence be on a lookout for risk aversion should developments stall.

Bullish momentum may test 1.3800.

A bearish relief for the currency pair may bring us down to 1.3680.

***

As an ongoing effort to connect to more folks new to the forex world and to share with them the horrors of a margin call, TheGeekKnows.com is on facebook now! Be a fan on facebook today and be proud of the koala in you!

Trade Safely.

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Bonjour Koalas!

A slow day today as the EUR/USD creeps around the neighborhood.

As we near the end of the week, i certainly hope everyone is in the green.

Looking at the EUR/USD, the price action remains bullish since yesterday, testing the resistance of 1.3680+.

Although the S&P 500 is bearish as of now, it remains above 1140, suggesting strong positive sentiments with regards to the US.

Oil remains above $80 too. A close above $80 this week may indicate that the recovery is gaining momentum as oil can be a clue to the economy.

Gold on the other hand continues to fall and is currently trading at $1107+.

***

The economic data today brought us a couple of news from the US which performed worst than expected. For starters, the Federal Budget Balance showed an increase in the deficit. US Unemployment Claims also came in worst than expected. However, it was slightly better than the previous release. As investors take stock of the US situation, do be prepared for the risk aversion should negative developments occur.

Over to Greece, strikes occurred as the citizens expressed their unwillingness to be held responsible for actions they did not do. I mentioned previously that the Greek deficit problem goes beyond a mere fix. The longer the delay of a concrete action plan, the more investors will punish it by avoiding it.

Tomorrow brings us important news such as the US Retail Sales. Being indicators of the consumer aspect of the economy, investors will be looking out toward this for clues.

Bullish advancement may target 1.3680/740.

A come back of the bears may see us touching 1.3550/455.

***

Folks! am wondering hmmmmm shall we have a koala page on the Facebook? Am not very familiar with this. Let me know if you are aware of how things work.

Trade safely.

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Good day to all!

Although today brought us more data from the Euro Zone, trading remains slow.

These data were mainly better than expected. French and Italian industrial productions performed much better than expected.

Regardless, the market probably remains apprehensive due to concerns over Greece. The EUR/USD continues to suggest that as the price action slows to a crawl.

The S&P 500 continues to emerge as a winner as it is on the verge of recovering its recent loses. The market seems bullish with regards to the American economy.

Oil is back above $80. A performing economy brings demand for oil.

Gold is valued at $1122+. Lately, the volatility of gold is rather low.

***

Greek deficit crisis is over and Euro Zone is safe. So says the former European Commission President.

While the Greek government did take measures in cutting spending and increasing tax, we must not forget that the general Greek populace is unhappy. If strikes and objections are to escalate, all carefully planned measures may be hampered. Furthermore, sentiments do not change over night and probably not over comments. The complication of a rating cut by rating agencies remains. Therefore we must remain vigilant.

Over in the US, despite these bullish sentiments, people are still losing their jobs. Unemployment remains a problem. A better than expected Non Farm Payroll perhaps but it is still people losing jobs. Furthermore, the unemployment problem is apparently having an increasing anchor effect on home sales. We know home sales create good economic activities and hence a lack of it may make the recovery a run up a steep hill. Not forgetting that foreclosures are still happening.

Do note however that ECB’s Trichet is due to talk later. Any possible hints on any upcoming policies may trigger movement in the currency pair. The US Federal Budget Balance is due later too and any negative developments may upset the bullish favor towards the US Dollar as investors seek to understand the extend of the US deficit. Tomorrow brings us a few important releases including the US Unemployment Claims.

Bullish pressure may test 1.3680/720.

A bearish return may test 1.3600/550.

***

A few readers wrote to me and said that the slow price action is unbearable. While it may be slow, i urge you to take it as a time to read up on articles and to analysis charts. If you cannot profit in the meanwhile due to the slow action, why not profit intellectually and learn a thing or two more about forex trading?

Trade Safely!

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Good day to you!

Today is the second day of trading and i hope you are building your way to a week in GREEN

So far the week had been pretty quiet with the absence of any major economic release.

Looking at the EUR/USD, in view of the light activity in the data cabinet, the currency pair remains in a narrow range.

After the great bullish run up, the S&P 500 currently hovers around the 1140 resistance. A break above here will probably require strong sentiments.

Oil is currently around $79. Likewise, a break and hold above $80 will probably need a strong drive of sentiments.

Gold continues to fall in value and is currently trading around $1117+.

***

While the data department is light today, trust the forex koala to share with you insights you may never know

The Greek Prime Minister is meeting the US President today and the agenda is reported to include the discussion of support from the US against “unprincipled speculators”. While this may buy time, i feel that this fact of having speculators is the nature of the free market. While it may be “unprincipled” it is ultimately still a form of sentiment and sentiment IS equal to the market.

The unfortunate issue here is that Greece is at the receiving end of negative sentiments.

Today an European Central Bank council member said that the ECB could accept lower rated bonds as collateral as long as an appropriate pricing of premium was applied due to the additional risk. If this policy is materialized, it may open up relief for Greece as the problem of a potential cut in it’s rating may no longer result in a loss of access to the ECB.

Equities all over the world are rather bearish as a number of earnings fell short of expectation.

Do be on a look out for risk aversion.

Although we have economic data due from both sides of the Atlantic tomorrow, these are expected to have no major impact in the immediate momentum of the price action. Nonetheless, do plan your trades well and be on the lookout for unexpected developments. Check out the economic calender for more details.

Bullish return may see us heading towards 1.3600/80.

Further bearish attacks may test the support of 1.3550/1.3455.

***

Alright. 2 down, 3 to go before it is the weekends. Looking forward to some valuable time to do an article or two. Remember our goal! Finish the week GREEN!

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Good day Koalas!

Monday is here again. Rise and shine for the new trading week. Remember our goal is not to become rich overnight. Rather to finish the week in green

The trading range is not too huge today as there were not many releases today.

While the EUR/USD continues to range within 1.34-1.38, recent bearish attacks were rather weak. This is seen on the chart as the currency pair slowly edges up.

The S&P 500 is the big winner these days as it has almost recovered from the previous drop. An interesting fact is that the EUR/USD is not showing a similar trend and hence the correlation between both is at stake.

Oil has hit $80 and i am paying close attention to it. Should it maintain above $80, we may be in a new phrase of economic recovery as oil can be a clue to the global economy’s health.

Gold has dropped to $1122+. In view of the risk taking sentiment, gold may be sold by investors taking on more risk.

***

In view of the recent bullish developments for the various equities and commodities, the apparent lack of a similar activity in the EUR/USD may be suggesting that the Euro Zone has lost it’s favor among the investors for now.

This is not surprising considering the extend of the Greek deficit problem. There is no real end in sight now and the strikes in the country is complicating possible solutions. Fears of similar problems in Spain, Portugal and now even Britain are turning investors away.

Nonetheless, there was a report stating that the EU is working on a plan for a “European Monetary Fund.” This would be a contingency styled lender. Should this plan succeed, it may boost the sentiments with regards to the Euro Zone.

With tomorrow being light on economic data, we may see ranging price action if nothing adverse pops by for a visit.

Bullish momentum may take us to 1.3680/720.

A comeback of the bears may push the currency pair down to 1.3600/550.

***

Folks do you like the slightly tweaked layout? My next plan will be to include a site map as a few folks wrote to me and said that they could not find some of the forex education articles.

My aim is to provide the best koala forex experience to you and so stay tuned for it!

Trade safely

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Hello Koalas!

Hope you are having a great weekend so far.

For starters, lets take stock of the current situation.

I mentioned in the previous weekly review that we will probably be ranging between 1.34 – 1.38. Looking with hindsight, the price action pretty much respected this range well.

At the start of the week, risk aversion was evident. There were reports stating that Germany did not factor in Greece’s aid in the 2010 budget. This apparently spooked investors who were paying close attention to the Greek deficit crisis. Later on however, EU officials commented that they expected Greece to introduce more deficit cutting measures. While this was encouraging, we must remember that the underlying problems go beyond a mere solution. This was seen as the price action became bullish in midweek due to the passing of deficit cutting measures by the Greek government, only to be knocked back down when strikes broke out. The Greek people were not happy that they were made to pay for the action of others. This indeed goes beyond a simple fix.

I noticed there was increasing reference to Britain as being the next Euro country to be implicated by deficit problems. This puts Britain in the category of Spain and Portugal. Possible hot zones. Close monitoring is advised.

US gave us a surprise this week. While economic data was generally good throughout the week, spurring on the ascent of the S&P 500, the US Pending Home Sales fell sharply in the later half of the week. Home sales are crucial to an economy as they can stimulate business. Surprising, the S&P 500 remains unaffected. This suggests positive sentiments towards the US economy. Having said so. do remember that the financial crisis is still pretty much around. Unemployment rate in the US remains a problem. The US deficit is massive too.

Next week brings us more economic data from both sides of the Atlantic. Releases such as the German Industrial Production will probably shed some light on the current economy’s status. Towards the end of the week, we have a few important data from the US. Examples include the US Unemployment Claims and Retail Sales.

You can find more information on economic data in the Economic Calender below.

From a technical point of view, we have being ranging for sometime now. This is not a surprise as the market simply do not have the best of choices. A better or worst than expected economic data from either side will probably woo or turn investors away.

The 200 EMA turns bearish but do consider the point that we are at the strong line of 1.3600 and hence any bearish push may see the currency pair moving back to 1.3600 when the momentum quietens.

Much will depend on the developments of the Greek crisis and the various economic data. If there is no adverse incident, we may see the currency pair ranging within 1.34 – 1.38.

Trade safely.

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Good day koalas!

Weekend is upon us soon and yes it is the CASH THE PIPS FOR BEER MONEY day!

The US Non Farm Payroll was slightly better than expected. The EUR/USD received bullish relief due probably to risk taking.

The S&P 500 continues to be bullish and it is nearly back at the level before the current correction.

Oil is hovering around $80. Should we cross and maintain over $80, we may be seeing a new phrase of the recovery as oil can be a clue to the global economy’s health.

Gold is trading at around $1138+.

***

While there are reports stating that the EU is in the midst of planning for a Greek assistance plan, strikes continue in Greece and threatens to hamper and derail the Greek government’s effort to lessen the deficit. Traders do not like sovereign problems and hence the EURO’s value suffers as a result.

On the other hand, the US appears to be the lesser of two evils for now and the S&P 500 is a testament to that. Sentiments are good and the US equities are raising. Today’s Non Farm Payroll came in better than expected, raising hopes that the job market is getting better. Do remember though that the US is also facing her own problems. A massive budget deficit and fragile housing market are among the top areas of concern.

As the week comes to a close, bullish pressure may bring us to 1.3680.

A bearish push may see us testing 1.3550.

Stay tuned for the EUR/USD Weekly Review over the weekend.

***

So did you finish your week green? I sure hope you did. Time to enjoy a well deserved weekend

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