mmarinescu

Hi again everyone,

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Hi everyone!

The breach down in GBP pairs I’ve been waiting for the last few days finally happened, and the daily close should finally confirm we’re going down for a continuation of the corrective patterns started at the beginning of the month (close below 154 should do the trick). On GJ, the breach of the daily trendline is now imminent, together with a clear break through the good support area @154 (quadruple bottom yesterday). My target areas are 150 & 148 for the near future (up to 2 weeks price action).

Does that mean we’re going straight down from here? I really don’t think so… A quick look at ALL the GBP pairs H1-H4 charts will show that Pound has aggressively bounced against all the other majors (EUR, CHF, USD, JPY) & is now correcting higher – that can be a sign to avoid this phase if you want to join the ride on the short side & wait for pullbacks up to 153.60 – 154 in GBPJPY and 1.6275 – 1.6300 in GBPUSD. Those should be good levels to enter short with reasonable stops (not more than 100 pips) for rallies of at least 300-400 pips (maybe even more on GJ if the drop is well sustained).

Good luck!

Hi again everyone!

It’s Monday so I’m going to start with a weekly perspective. After the bullish trade we took last week on a retracement (http://blog.fxinstructor.com/cable-about-to-correct-recent-drop/), this week I’m looking at a completely different situation. First, the very fact that the correction last week only managed to touch 1.6670 (38.2 of the previous wave down) & then the bears had the chance to reach down to 1.6435 once again earlier today is significant from a mid-term perspective. This fulfills my first condition for a bear rally mentioned last week in our LTR – bulls’ failure to get out of trouble by re-conquering & holding on to at least 61% of the drop before price hits back last week’s bottom. In other words what doesn’t go up must come down – that’s what I’m expecting to happen this week. Here’s the chart pics & facts:

The W1 chart seems to be turning as 1.6750 rejects the bull run once again forming an interesting bearish candlestick pattern right at the top. The RoC TL is broken for weeks now & the price has already crossed its own TL @1.6450 (needs to stay below to confirm). At the same time the RoC is giving a big bear divergence, all this on the background of a bearish monthly chart. Could the longer-term bear trend be resumed here? This week might be the key to this question…

The daily chart looks interesting as both bearish & some bullish arguments can be developed from the current situation. What is particularly interesting for me are 3 points:

1) the first aggressive trend line was broken @1.6545 – that wouldn’t be relevant if price hadn’t come up again to retest the same TL with failure @1.6615. The same daily candle closes nicely below the D1 20MA which is now a resistance. The 60MA is now again tested (it’s been support for the rally up since March & for now it holds). The previous triple top res. @1.6605 is now capping perfectly a move that is now about to be confirmed as a mere corrective pattern after the 1.7042-1.6390 rally…

2) there are 2 important daily &weekly trend lines & a support level in the 1.6430 – 1.6340 area. This should provide at least bullish reactions if not even a bullish wave but in case this area is easily broken down by the bears the mid-term bear scenario I have in mind will receive a lot of backup. Price action around these levels will be  very interesting to observe.

3) The current wave down doesn’t make much sense to me as a W4 of a bull impulse started @1.5984. The move is too well sustained & too deep to be a W4, besides it has no corrective structure at all. On the other hand, if this push is just W1 of a newly emerged bearish impulse then everything could be easily explained in bearish language

Finally, the H4 picture on my chart is bearish since friday last week. The indicators are down & the short-term TL is broken @1.6540. The MA’s are clearly pointing down, and the H1 chart is bearish since 1.65. Momentum is not yet great, but I see good potential if the bulls don’t step in to correct this move very soon (in the next 2-3 sessions).

CONCLUSION:

Today I’ll only look for shorts, my ideal entries are in the 1.6475-1.6510 area, stops @1.6590. In case no upper correction comes before London open or immediately after, I’ll look to short small lots with much smaller stops (M15-M5 setups). Longs for me become interesting only above 1.66, where a successful defence of the support area @1.6430 – 1.6340 would be confirmed – in that case initial targets are 1.6760 – 1.6800.

Good luck & have a great week!

Hi everyone!

Since the NFP on Friday cable has been losing ground with every trading session & my waves indicate we are most likely in a larger corrective move targeting the key 1.59 area in the next week(s). The momentum of the drop is definitely impulsive so I’m looking to sell the pair as soon as it manages to complete a retracement. It’s exactly this retracement i’m interested in for the time being, since the H4 chart is giving more & more signals of an upcoming correction in short-term.

On the large charts we seem trapped between the key previous res. @1.6618 & the immediate H4 supp. TL broken @1.6545 on the upper side and the key D1 TL & horizontal supp. @1.6300. On D1 chart this area is a “no man’s land”, which means bullishness in mid-term is already under attack. An indecisive doji right @ the 60MA on D1 further increases the sentiment of balance, which in my opinion favors a short-term retracement up. Whatever the outcome of the current short scenario, the bears need to confirm their commitment by defending the 61% fib of the current drop to confirm a continuation of the rally down to the 1.60-1.59 area.

On this background, the H4 chart has turned neutral yesterday & now bullish signs are starting to emerge on the indicators (Trix & RoC are now signalling correction). Since the momentum clearly slowed down since yesterday’s London session I see 2 probable scenarios for today:

- a descent to 1.6420 – 1.6380 sometime in the next 2 hours (currently GU is trading @1.6480) which may turn out to be a spike – that’s my signal to buy cable aggressively & continue to add as the trade progresses towards a final target of 1.66.

OR:

- a slow move above 1.6520 before London open, followed by moderate bullish momentum up to approx. 1.6570-1.66 -> this will further emphasize that the current bear move is no mere pullback & we’re set to see prices below 1.62 by the end of the week.

H1 is currently flat with M15 mixed, both giving moderate bullish signals ONLY above 1.6520. As a result I am flat for now & looking to enter longs on either of the 2 scenarios mentioned above.

Good luck!

Hi everyone,

While the bigger picture is now losing its bullishness (but technically still in an ascending formation), shorter-term we saw the development of an impulsive bearish wave yesterday on GBPJPY. The pic on M30 chart looks like a retracement is due, as we currently have all the necessary ingredients:

- A clear 1-2-3-4-5 formation (162.37 – 159.46) on M30 – H1 now looking complete (divergences on RoC & stoch right at the lows of W3 & W5.

- M30 TL broke @160.00 & now we are trading above this TL (159.98 at this time)

- first wave of the correction may be complete already (159.46 – 160.26), which makes the current push down a possible wave B of the ABC wave targeting approx. 50% fib of yesterday’s drop (also previous support)

- According to the waves 159.80-159.90 offers good long opportunities with tight stops @159.40. Once this level is taken out the pattern is invalidated.

Good luck!

Hi everyone!

Cable has been nicely bullish lately & the top @1.7000 should not be a major one. I personally don’t believe in major resistances @ round numbers, which is why my bigger picture is definitely bull. However I can’t help observing signs of trouble that may disturb the bulls’ joyride today, at least for a short while. Just the plain facts, as always:

First, my H4 indicators are turning back down indicating correction is near or already under way. RoC is already in bear mode while Trix is about to give a bearish crossover with its moving average (first signal of correction/reversal). Im not thinking of a big drop, just a brief touch-and-go in the 1.6820-1.6790 area (with potential continuation if the bears really have something important to say).

H1 is heavily divergent (RoC & stoch) while M30 chart is giving me a potential MA bearish setup about to be confirmed. This short-term picture is giving the bears some temporary fuel to diminish the bull pressure -> but they need to start right away, as a move back towards 1.7000 might see violent burst  all the way to 1.72.

Finally, while the M15 chart remains a clear bull so far, M5 gives a possible low-risk short opportunity I will try to take later in London session, if confirmed. I’m waiting for the bullish response to the current 1.7000 – 1.6924 move down, which should push the MAs to cross over again to the upside (16950-1.6970). Once this happens, an opposite M5 crossover (bear) would be my signal to short with tight stop (not more than 30 pips on the current setup), target in the lower 1.68 area. If instead  there’s a swing failure right @ the 60MA on M5 (1.6945)  this could work just as well. However, any failure of the M5 MAs to cross back down would keep me away from shorts & even signal that I should join another round of bullishness (also a low-risk trade if taken early, target 1.7145 – 1.72).

Whether short or long let’s try to keep our risk low & stay open for whatever London session will bring

Good luck!

Hi guys,

For today just a brief outlook of GU as I see it now before London session:

On H4 my indicators are turning flat, with slight bearish bias indicating correction but not necessarily reversal back to longs. We are sitting on a key H4 supporting TL @1.6350 & so far it looks like holding. I will be playing the retracement scenario today, buying small for targets up to 1.6480. That is the limit of the upside as far as I’m concerned, at least for today (which doesn’t mean i enter short but I will be exiting longs & stay out). H1 is so far supporting the correction plan with divergences on RoC & stoch while MA’s turn bullish right as I write this. The MA system on M15 gave me the entry @1.6390, stop is now 6368 – however I will need this trade to advance fast in the next hour to get me off the hook.

Elliott-wave-wise I am seeing this move as a flat correction started @1.6346 – the current bullish wave if confirmed & sustained should be the last leg up before an aggressive drop (W3 red on H4).

Good luck!

Hi everyone!

As the market is slowly going towards a breakout point in most majors (it spends most of the time in a range, but not ALL the time!), I just wanted to signal a possible long-term opportunity that can arise around the current levels on GBPJPY. I’m looking to make a move & sell GBPJPY somewhere in the 1.57 area IF AND ONLY IF I get the right signal in the next few sessions. Here’s what I have in mind:

First, on the W1 chart we can see that the momentum of the move from 118.80 to 162.58 is obviously broken, and the trend line supporting that rally broke @153. For the last month, the move that broke the trend line was also retraced (check D1 chart) & now price is re-testing the same broken TL around 157-157.50. For me, this is the key area for SMALL shorts with long-term aim. Could this be the last push up before the REAL drop, just like it happened before, in 2007? Remember, history does not repeat itself but it can teach us a lot through its cyclical nature…

I hope it is well understood that I am not suggesting shorts YET, but if short-term charts are giving short signals that conicide with this longer-term scenario, wouldn’t it be nice to hold on to some positions with potential for long-term rallies, while only risking an intra-day stop?

D1 is currently divergent, with a nice double top @157.38, but the bullish trends on D1 & H4 continue to be bull @ the time of this writing. Maybe the time to shoot has not come yet. Nevertheless, my H4 chart only needs 155.20 to turn my indicators bearish & confirm the double top. I’m planning to put on my first short (half lot) around that area & add later down @155.00 & 153.00 for a nice big target (i’m thinking 140.00 & below). Another possibility would be shorting higher up @157.50 or at a spike above this level, with nicer R/R but higher risk. In any case, I will need my M15 & M5 to turn bearish before shorting, no matter how aggressive the level may be. While M15 & M5 are bullish (like they are right now) I cannot even short for a small target.

Finally, what if the bear setup is never confirmed? The 157.50 will probably turn into support, & the bulls can continue their joyride up to 163 first, then 178-180, where I see another possible turning point. For me the bearish setup will fail as 158 is broken on H4&D1 – from there I will start looking up once again.

Good luck!

EURUSD has been quiet lately, however this is not its true nature. My charts indicate that the pair is looking to burst out of this annoying range quite soon, making one of those “I-don’t-stop-to-allow-you-to-get-in” rally which spices traders’ life every once in a while. If you’re into spicy stuff then I suggest you get your senses ready. And your platform

So here’s what I see:

After a serious bounce from 1.4277, the pair found support right @1.4161, its previous resistance & subsequently managed to set a higher high @1.4199. The ingredients for a new rally are ready: the red wave (nr.5 on H4/D1 according to my count) now has W1 & W2 complete. What’s next? A possible TL break @1.4232 in the next hours would coincide with the horizontal res. @1.4243 now holding the bulls back. If H4 manages to break through I see EURUSD up @1.4380 – 1.4420 by the end of London session today. In case the initial phase of the rally gives a pullback to the current resistance the momentum could be weaker & the above mentioned targets should be reached after the next US session. Anyway, we are most likely talking about a W3 of 5 & therefore I believe the volatility will be quite high today. Get ready for some sweet action!

My H1 waves indicate that only 1.42 would temporarily cancel this bullish outlook & shorts can only be taken if 1.4160 breaks as well (a possibility but not a probability as far as I’m concerned). We have W3 of 5 blue active on our current black wave (which is probably also a W3!). This is why I’m getting ready for a long-awaited swing towards the upside today (W3 of W3 is in any wave structure THE wave to trade).

My MA system is clearly longs on H4 & H1 with SF confirming the current picture & H1 TRIX in bull mode since yesterday & 15min giving a BUY signal 5hrs ago. BUY BUY BUY is for me the word of order on EU today.

I am long from 1.4240 & planning to add more once the rally is under way. If I am wrong I will get out of the current long around 1.42 & wait until new signals start to emerge.

Good luck!

Cable has just completed a correction down & now seems trapped between a rock (H4 res. @1.6458) and a hard place (1.63, the bearish mid-term confirmation point). While inside this area trading may be choppy & the mid-term direction is definitely not clear. Watch the 78% level about to be tested @1.6433 for clues whether the bulls can sustain this rally in short-term. Above 1.6320 the bias is bullish however the road ahead looks full of obstacles & the current price action on EURGBP may not sustain the idea of a cable rally, at least not for now. Above 1.6458 the next target is 1.6538 (127% extension of the last bear move), while towards the south a break of 1.63 should trigger a move down to 1.6150 (current H4 TL support). CCI is about to turn up but looks rather flat around the 0 level. For the moment my preference is for short-term trades or scalps until key levels are breached on either side.