vhenjoto

Don’t you miss volatility?

I Do miss Market Volatility! A volatile market for Currency Traders, would relate to a kid with candy, so much to do in so little time. The Adrenaline pumping, Calculating charts in a frenzy is much much better than staring at the charts not going anywhere. These few days is just like watching primary kids having a Table Tennis match, tedious and boring.
Market has been quiet this week, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD still trapped in a range market conditions. Momentum to break either way for them would probably happen today, with a barrage of data to be released today. (more…)

Further weakness in the dollar or that’s it?

Let’s Re-cap yesterday, Nothing much happened until Around the release of the ISM manufacturing Index From the US, Market was expecting a forecast of 48.0 from a previous of 50.7.

Right Before the data was released EUR/USD printed a new Historical High of 1.5275, when the actual Data shows up 48.3, still Weaker than the previous month but better than the actual forecast, Euro went right back to where it started.

Is this market’s way of thinking, “ Hey The economy is not that bad, yeah it’s slowing but not as bad as we thought” ? Maybe… but USD/JPY back to its 3 years low @102.60, still shows sign that Traders in the market are not willing to think that way.

Risk Aversion is There and will probably stay this week,with what I call the Rate week, we have 5 Major Central banks with their rate decision, Starting with the RBA in about 2 hours time. (more…)

Dollar slammed last week but recovered some ground on Friday.

The Dollar has recovered some lost ground against all Majors on Friday, profit taking has been blamed for the drop especially in Euro and AUD.
The drop in Dollar mid last week was hugely attributed to comments made by Fed Chairman Bernanke on his 2nd day testimony, in which he stated that smaller banks are most likely going to be affected with all the Economic concerns for the USA.

(more…)

Dollar falls against all major after disappointing data.

US Consumer Confidence printed 75.0 against the forecast of a fall to 82.0, Which Triggered a rally In All the Majors.

With EUR/USD finally hits the elusive 1.5000 level, and AUD/USD back above 0.9300.
PPI m/m printed 1.0% above expectations of 0.4%, And Core PPI printed 0.4% above expectations of 0.2%.

A drop in Consumer Confidence, which indicates a Slow Growth in the Economy, together with Above expectations PPI which means a Higher Inflation sign, only complicates matter for FOMC in terms of their Interest Rate Decision Making.

Forget Recession, US Economy is entering a Stagflation Economy. It will be interesting to see what move FOMC will take. Will they ease The interest rate again to boost growth, like what most People are assuming right now. Or hold rates as it is to deter any possible rise in inflation? (more…)

Carry Trade Back in Play?
With JPY weakening since the past 2 weeks, Fear of US Recession does not seem to dampened the appetite for Carry Trade.
With AUD/JPY Leading the race.Our Favorite Comm dollar has been on a rampage the past month, This is mainly attributed to the High risk of Inflation The Australian Economy is facing. (more…)

GBP/USD Outlook

GBP/USD seems to be in the spotlight this week, with all the major UK data coming out this week.We had PPI on Monday which printed 2.6% beating the expectation of 1% .

Then We had the CPI Data Yesterday, which printed blow expectations at 2.2%, while Core CPI is very disappointing @1.3%.

RICS House Price Balance Fell further to -54.7% from the previous Survey at -49.1%

So What’s in Store for the Cable today??? (more…)

Welcome to the start of a new week, hope all of you had a great weekend.

Lets Start With our Favorite Commdollar AUD/USD.

As I said on my previous Reports that The AUD/USD is still in an uptrend, slowly but surely.
Friday saw AUD/USD trading sideways for most of the day, but it might change soon with The RBA announcing Their Monetary Policy Tomorrow at 00:30 GMT ( 11:30 AEST ). More Tightening in the future is what we would probably hear from that statement. (more…)

Well, From the Previous Market outlook, everything seems to go as predicted in that outlook.

No Major News Coming out on the 8th of January 2008.

Market went Out “GUNS BLAZING” yesterday after the interest rates statements from ECB and BOE, US Data came out lower but still better than previous month’s drop. All This Weighing down on Cable and EUR/USD.

The Previous Charts i posted is still Valid for Friday, so a move to the downside for Both Cable and Euro is still probable. I’m Leaving that aside for now, and I’m Going to have a look at AUD/USD today. (more…)

GBP/USD has been pricing in the rate cut tomorrow, moving lower since yesterday with market expecting a 25bp Cut Tomorrow by BOE.

Want to know why? The last meeting they had was a Hold with 8:1vote. Data after that is pretty bleak, retail drops, mortgage and consumer lending drops, housing prices drops… so you would probably figure out that there is a slowdown in household spending. (more…)