Intraday Thoughts – November 14, 2008
Halfway into the European session and we still find currency markets unable to capitalize on a firm performance from Asian and European equity indices as people ask what led to the 11th hour rally Thursday is the US. With this uncertainty hanging over our heads markets are far from confident that the US will be able to hold on to yesterdays gains particularly in the face of what could likely be some very grim numbers from the US. Ahead we have October Retail Sales figures at 1330GMT where consensus forecast call for a sharp -2.0% fall on top if the prior -1.2% read as consumer tighten their belts and buckle up. Along with this will be Import Prices seen easing another -4.3% with the data day capped by Preliminary November Consumer Sentiment figures from the University of Michigan with consensus calling for a 56.0 print. All in all a set of numbers to remind investors that we are still facing a long recession and a possible catalyst for renewed risk aversion.






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