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Filed under: Tips and Strategies | 11/05/07 03:01pm UTC
smangwani

Know Your Currencies: Inverse Relationships

In the forex markets, it’s worth knowing the characteristics of the currency pairs, since each of them exhibit distinct identities.

Most of the currencies exhibit similar movement patterns, which can help a trader confirm price movements.

One such close relation can be found between the EUR/USD & USD/CHF.

The price movements of these two currency pairs are absolute mirror images.

In short, they have an inverse relationship: If EUR/USD is rallying, then USD/CHF should have downward movement, and vice-versa.

The following chart has a comparative price movement of both these currencies, and this inverse relation can be seen very clearly.

So how does one take advantage of this?
Example Chart

The most obvious fact is that one must not trade both the currencies at the same time. If one is long the EUR/USD, logically one should not be long the USD/CHF at the same time, since the USD/CHF would have a downward movement.

Neither is it advisable to take opposing trades on these two pairs, because if the trade goes wrong, then the trader would incur losses in both the trades.

Ideally, one should trade either of the two pairs.

The best way to take advantage of this fact is to cross-check a trade by looking for confirmation factors on the other pair.

If a trader is planning to take a Long position in the EUR/USD, he can look for a similar Short setup on the USD/CHF.

If such an opposite setup is present in the USD/CHF, it only adds further credence to his long EUR/USD trade.

There are other currency pairs also which exhibit a close relation as well.

Another fact is that each currency has an approximate Average Daily Trading Range (also known as the ADR), which it follows in the normal course of the trading day.

While this is not written in stone, it serves a good “Rule of Thumb” to estimate the movement of the particular currency. Thus it is worth studying these relationships to gain an edge in the market.

Sometimes it is this basic knowledge, which can be the dividing line between success and failure.


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[1] Comment by Mihai — November 5, 2007 @ 6:19 pm

Along the same line of thought, I would like to emphasize a particular point related to the traders’ need to know their currencies.
Not once I have heard a trader say: “EUR/USD was not giving me good results, so I switched to USD/CAD. Then again, I found the pair was not following my strategy, so I’ve just decided to switch to EUR/SEK instead…”. And so on, there are traders who keep changing their currency of choice on a daily or weekly basis, hoping that the new pair will respond better to their trading decisions.

Actually, the truth is that no pair can trade on its own, and if a trader loses money consistently trading EUR/USD or USD/CAD, it is probable that he will have the same poor results on EUR/SEK or any other currency pair. Lack of education and confidence together with the absence of a coherent trading plan - they all lead to bad trading, and bad trading remains bad trading regardless of the pair our trader has chosen. The answer to his/her problems is definitely NOT there… Actually, it is not the pair who should be following the trader’s strategy (as he may think), but on the contrary: the pair has to be chosen in such a way as to allow the strategy produce the expected results… Strategy remains paramount to profitable trading and just changing the currency pair(s) again and again will not change this basic fact.

I will come back with 2 possible answers to this particular problem, which generally solve the traders’ “Which Pairs Should I Trade?” dilemma. After that, 3 words must stick onto our trader’s brain: EDUCATION and MONEY MANAGEMENT. There is no bold bold enough to emphasize them…

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