 |
| 8:39 am |
Filed under: Probability Studies | Comments (0) | |
|
To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades
|
| 2:05 am |
Filed under: Market Analysis | Comments (0) | |
|
Wed, 13th of August, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)
EURUSD Outlook
After attempted to move lower and bottomed at 1.4815, yesterday the EURUSD recovered, made a new high of the day, topped at 1.4963 and closed at 1.4913. My hourly chart bearish channel has been violated, so we might still have further upside correctional move. In the nearest term, as long as the pair move above 1.4975, the bias is still bearish. A break to the upside of that level could trigger further correctional movement towards 1.5080 area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4975. Initial support at 1.4880 followed by 1.4815 (yesterday’s low).
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.4831
- S2= 1.4749
- S3= 1.4683
- R1= 1.4979
- R2= 1.5045
- R3= 1.5127
GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday the GBPUSD continued it’s bearish momentum. The pair hit my short target at 1.9024, even further, bottomed at 1.8952 and closed at 1.8958. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.8920 followed by 1.8870. Initial resistance at 1.9024 followed by 1.9070.
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.8900
- S2= 1.8842
- S3= 1.8732
- R1= 1.9068
- R2= 1.9178
- R3= 1.9236
USDJPY Outlook
Yesterday the warning of declining bullish momentum showed by hanging man candle stick pattern come to reality. The USDJPY corrected lower, bottomed at 109.21 and closed at 109.30. We might see another downside pullback today. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 108.50. Initial resistance at 109.50. CCI just cross -100 line down on daily chart, suggesting a potential bearish view.
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 108.89
- S2= 108.48
- S3= 107.76
- R1= 110.02
- R2= 110.74
- R3= 111.15
USDCHF Outlook
Yesterday the USDCHF made indecisive movement by open and closed at almost the same price (1.0871 and 1.0865). Although in the nearest term the bias is still bullish, this fact could be an indication of potential downside correctional move. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.0828 followed by 1.0775. Initial resistance at 1.0900.
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.0820
- S2= 1.0776
- S3= 1.0724
- R1= 1.0916
- R2= 1.0968
- R3= 1.1012
Have a great day!
|
| 08/12/08 5:49 am |
Filed under: Probability Studies | Comments (0) | |
|
|
To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades
|
| 2:34 am |
Filed under: Market Analysis | Comments (0) | |
|
|
Tue, 12th of August, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)
EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the bearish momentum of EURUSD was still intact. The pair attempted to move higher as a correctional move earlier yesterday, topped at 1.5083, but whipsawed, back to it’s bearish trend, bottomed at 1.4879 and closed at 1.4893. We have a valid bearish trend line/channel on hourly and 4h chart. My model remains short, targeting 1.4778. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4930 followed by 1.4975.
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.4820
- S2= 1.4747
- S3= 1.4616
- R1= 1.5024
- R2= 1.5155
- R3= 1.5228
GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday the GBPUSD made an upside correction, topped at 1.9255, but this correctional movement quickly lose it’s momentum as the pair went back to the downside, bottomed at 1.9065 and closed at 1.9101. We have a valid bearish trend line/channel on hourly and 4h chart. My model remains short, targeting 1.9024 and then 1.8930. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.9125.
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.9025
- S2= 1.8950
- S3= 1.8835
- R1= 1.9215
- R2= 1.9330
- R3= 1.9405
USDJPY Outlook
Yesterday the USDJPY bullish momentum seemed limited. We have a hanging man candle stick formation on daily chart that could be a warning of decline momentum of the bullish view. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 110.40 (yesterday’s high). Initial support is seen at 109.50. CCI in overbought area on daily chart.
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 109.63
- S2= 109.15
- S3= 108.77
- R1= 110.49
- R2= 110.87
- R3= 111.35
USDCHF Outlook
Yesterday the USDCHF attempted to push lower, bottomed at 1.0741 but this correctional downside movement was very limited as the pair whipsawed to the upside, made a new high of the day at 1.0880. My model remains long targeting 1.0965. Immediate support is seen at 1.0850 followed by 1.0802.
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.0780
- S2= 1.0691
- S3= 1.0641
- R1= 1.0919
- R2= 1.0969
- R3= 1.1058
Have a great day!
|
| 08/11/08 6:09 pm |
Filed under: Live Trading Room | Comments (0) | |
|
|
Hi there fellow traders!
Herewith is my daily video recap for August 11, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.
We had a no trade zone as the EUR converged with significant support. Although no trade were entered, we discussed the possible move expectations if price should bounce or break lower. A bearish bias was clearly intact as a possible bullish probability was rapidly failing.
Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/11-aug-probability-studies-uk-inflation-watch/
To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.
|
| 6:50 am |
Filed under: Probability Studies | Comments (0) | |
|
|
Last week the Bucky retaliated with a vengeance. It was full out war against the other currencies as the Dollar stepped up to the plate, continuing its broad based strengthening. Major support levels in the EUR and GBP were violated in spectacular fashion. The hot knife through butter effect.. 
Due to the fact that major support has been breached in all pairs vs the bucky, we can now expect a whole cycle change for the next couple of years
Have a look at the intermediate support level which has been violated. Before this level was violated, the EUR still had a fighting chance against the Dollar but now all hopes for a EUR comeback has flown out of the proverbial window…
EUR Probability Study for today:
Direction of Highest Probability for Major Trend - BEARISH
Direction of Highest Probability for Intraday Trend - BULLISH
Intraday Probability Study:
No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. By the looks of things we might see consolidation/retrace as the bearish 60minute trend resistance line has now been violated. Even though the violation is not confirmed yet, the bearish probability is no more. Remember that we are not saying that the market will retrace all the way back to 1.6figure, but according to the probability study technique the market moves in cycles and we might see an intraday bullish cycle/probability before the next short move
Currently the EUR is bouncing on the daily support at 1.4920 (attached below) Keep an eye on this one…It is 30 pips away. If it’s violated the bearish trading condition will resume with brute force
On the economic front today we have UK inflation figures in the form of the PPI so keep an eye on this one as it will give us an indication of the future movements of the Cable as well.
We wish you a great trading week ahead and please feel free to come and say hello in the Live Trading Room
Johan Kriek
jkriek@fxinstructor.com
|
| 2:51 am |
Filed under: Market Analysis | Comments (0) | |
|
|
Mon, 11th of August, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)
EURUSD Outlook
Friday the Greenback continued it’s positive trend and probably most influenced by the sharp decline of oil price by more than $30 in the last 4 weeks. We had a huge bearish movement of 337 pips. The pair topped at 1.5334, bottomed at 1.4997 and closed at 1.5006. We had a gap early today as the pair opened at 1.4942 today at Asian market, bottomed at 1.4918 (temporarily?), corrected upside and topped at 1.4992 and traded around 1.4970 at the time I wrote this commentary. My model is short, targeting 1.4865. The pair should maintain a consistent move below key level 1.4975 to keep the bearish continuation intact in the nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5030. CCI in oversold area on daily and weekly chart suggesting that the pair bearish move might have exhausted, but just cross 100 line down on monthly chart suggesting a potential bearish view of this month.
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.4890
- S2= 1.4775
- S3= 1.4553
- R1= 1.5227
- R2= 1.5449
- R3= 1.5564
GBPUSD Outlook
The Greenback also continue a positive trend against the Sterling on Friday. The pair move 292 pips, topped only at 1.9437, bottomed at 1.9145 and closed at 1.9211. Technically speaking from a broader view, after broke the 1.9206 resistance level, the pair is targeting 1.8757 area. My model is short targeting 1.9024. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.9206. CCI in oversold area on daily and weekly chart, suggesting that the bearish momentum might have exhausted, but just cross the -100 line down on monthly chart, suggesting a potential bearish view for this month.
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.9091
- S2= 1.8972
- S3= 1.8799
- R1= 1.9383
- R2= 1.9556
- R3= 1.9675
USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY continued it’s bullish momentum on Friday. The pair topped at 110.36 and closed at 110.16. Early today in Asian market the pair had a minor downside correction, bottomed at 109.61 (temporarily?) and traded around 109.90 at the time I wrote this commentary. My model is mixed with upside bias. Immediate support is seen at 109.50. Initial resistance at 110.36 (Friday’s high). A break to the upside would trigger further bullish movement towards 111.50 area. CCI in overbought area on both daily and weekly chart.
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 109.52
- S2= 108.88
- S3= 108.46
- R1= 110.58
- R2= 111.00
- R3= 111.64
USDCHF Outlook
Like all other major currencies, Friday the Swiss Franc slumped against US Dollar. The pair topped at 1.0835 and closed at 1.0822. My model goes long targeting 1.0890. Immediate support is seen at 1.0780 followed by 1.0730. CCI in overbought area both on daily and weekly chart, suggesting the bullish momentum might have exhausted, but just cross -100 line up on monthly chart, suggesting a potential bullish view for this month.
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.0675
- S2= 1.0528
- S3= 1.0448
- R1= 1.0902
- R2= 1.0982
- R3= 1.1129
Have a great day!
|
| 08/08/08 4:21 am |
Filed under: Market Analysis | Comments (0) | |
|
|
Fri, 08th of August, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)
EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the Greenback continued it’s positive trend. After break the key level support at 1.5380, the pair fell sharply, bottomed at 1.5310 and closed at 1.5324. This bearish momentum still continue early today in Asian market, as the pair already made a big bearish movement of 142 pips to the downside at the time I wrote this commentary, traded around 1.5215 bottomed at 1.5192. The bias is still on bearish side. We have an important support at 1.5180. A break to the downside could trigger further downside scenario towards 1.4975, while a failure could get us a correctional upside movement back towards 1.5380. CCI already in oversold area on both daily and weekly chart.
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.5255
- S2= 1.5186
- S3= 1.5063
- R1= 1.5447
- R2= 1.5570
- R3= 1.5639
GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling also slumped against Greenback yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.9419 and closed at 1.9431. Early today, at the time I wrote this commentary, the pair already made a big bearish movement of 168 pips, traded around 1.9288 and bottomed at 1.9269. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.9206. A break to the downside would open the door towards a broader bearish view towards 1.9063 area. Initial resistance at 1.9450. CCI in oversold area both on daily and weekly chart.
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.9387
- S2= 1.9344
- S3= 1.9269
- R1= 1.9505
- R2= 1.9580
- R3= 1.9623
USDJPY Outlook
Yesterday the USDJPY bullish momentum had a minor correction. The pair bottomed at 109.13 and closed at 109.33. However, like all other major currencies, the Japanese Yes was traded weaker against Greenback early today. The pair is traded upside around 109.70 level at the time I wrote this commentary. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 109.88. A break to the upside could trigger further bullish scenario towards 110.60. CCI in oversold area both on daily and weekly chart.
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 109.08
- S2= 108.83
- S3= 108.53
- R1= 109.63
- R2= 109.93
- R3= 110.18
USDCHF Outlook
The Swiss Franc also slumped against Greenback yesterday. The pair topped at 1.0636 and closed at 1.0610. Early today, the pair already made a big upside movement, topped at 1.0711 at the time I wrote this commentary. Should this bullish momentum continue, the next target is 1.0762 resistance level. The bias is still on the bullish side. Immediate support is seen at 1.0609. CCI in overbought area both on daily and weekly chart.
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.0542
- S2= 1.0474
- S3= 1.0427
- R1= 1.0657
- R2= 1.0704
- R3= 1.0772
Have a nice weekend!
|
|
 |
|
 |
