GbpUsd Technical View

GbpUsd just poked once again the 2.0100 support level and right as this commentary is written the pair is trading slightly under the trendline that marks the lower side of the bullish channel. So far the pair has traded within our expectations between the 2.0200 resistance and the 2.0100 support for the last couple of days but we have a piece of news(BOE minutes) coming from the UK central bank today that could have a major effect on the pair and start a more serious move. Breaking below the current lows brings us closer to our Fibonacci Expansion target at 2.0020 area and will possibly open up the 2.00 round area as the next major support zone on the charts. Conversely a move higher will have to break the 2.0200 resistance which so far has proven to be a strong one.

Resistance Levels

• 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
• 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
• 2.0650 – July 24th High

Support Levels

• 2.0460 – August 3rd High
• 2.0365 – September 12th High
• 2.0200 – Round number

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Tuesday’s Dec 18th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd stayed contained in a 50 pip range not managing to break above the 1.4415 intraday resistance line. The pair has clearly slowed down it’s bearish momentum and it starts to look bullish at least on the shorter timeframes.

GbpUsd formed both today and yesterday two exhaustion pattern on the 1 hour timeframe seen below, and this looks hard to break unless we get some bullish USD news that can push the pair lower. Looking at the chart closest resistance is last weeks low at 2.0180 that has been already tested in the UK session and we expect at least another test of this level in the Us session.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro printed a doji like bar on Monday, the pair headed for the 1.4300 support level in the morning but failed to reach it and ended up closing the day above the 1.4400 round number; today’s Asian session brought the pair a little bit lower but still we are trading very close to the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement line of the October-November move north that established the current YTD high at 1.4967. We need to see a more stronger move at the 1.4300 support before being to confident in the down moves potential, yesterday’s range should give us an opportunity to better asses the situation: a new low is clearly a bearish signal while a move above 1.4450 will be rather bullish and might signal the end of the down move.

Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number

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Monday’s Dec 17th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

Euro continued Friday’s down move and already covered more than 100 points in today’s Asian and European session; the pair retraced a bit towards the 1.4400 round number but is once again heading lower and we could see the 1.4300 bearish target getting hit later on today.

GbpUsd hit the resistance at the 2.0200 in the Asian session and than moved sharply down until it hit the 2.0100 support and the ascending trendline that marks the lower part of the monthly bullish channel. We notice a bullish divergence formed on the 1 hour charts supporting a bounce from the 2.0100 level. A failure to break a new low will definetly give bulls reasons to try and push the pair higher.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro formed a big red candle on the weekly charts, as seen below, but the most part of the move was made on Thursday and Friday when the pair dropped almost 300 points, we witnessed a small consolidation period for the first 3 days of the week around the 1.4700 area. On Friday EurUsd broke through the closest support levels and pushed lower towards the 1.4400 area getting close to the 38.02 Fibonacci retracement line of the October-November move north that established the current YTD high at 1.4967. Breaking below the trendline connecting the October lows was a a clear bearish signal although a retest of the 1.4500 area is not out of the question in the next couple of days as this particular area has proved to be strong support turned now into resistance. Looking at the big picture we can see the 1.4300 area as the main bearish target and a place where the pair could find significant support as the bullish traders will try to establish a new base there.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Friday’s Dec 13th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

Euro retraced a bit in the Asian session and after touching Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s lows at 1.4650 it started to move lower without looking back, it covered already 175 points and has reached the 1.4500 support area; a failure to break lower early in the US session will most likely start a consolidation range if not a small retracement, considering we have reached the short term projected target at the 100 Fibonacci Expansion level seen on the chart.

Cable made a lower high just before the UK markets opened this morning and after that it sunk more than 200 points towards the 2.0200 area. A continuation lower in the US session will get the pair even closer to the previously mentioned 2.0200 support and if the momentum remains intact we could see a test of the 2.0180 monthly low.

EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd started to move lower on Thursday after failing to print a new high, the 1.4700 area proving to be tough resistance; the pair has got very close to the ascending trendline connecting two October swing lows and a break below this will open up at first the 1.4500 area as the next bearish target followed by the 38.2 Fibonacci Line at 1.4380. The downside momentum has increased and now we just have to wait and see if its strong enough to break the support level and make a new monthly low.

Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Thursday’s Dec 13th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

Euro broke through the 1.4700 support and is getting close to the support offered by the ascending trendline connecting last Friday’s and Tuesday’s lows, a move below this will reinforce the short bias and many traders will start looking at lower levels for tomorrow.

Cable found support at the 2.0400 area and has already tested the trendline that connects 2 swing lows and a break below will be in line with our expectation. We look at the 2.0365 area as the next bearish target and main support zone.

EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd formed an inside green bar on the daily charts on Wednesday, failing to print a new high but managed to close the day a few points above the 1.4700 round number. We are in the same situation as yesterday and while we are trading below this weeks highs we expect the pair to resume it’s down move, first target is the 1.4600 level before getting closer to last weeks lows at 1.4525 and that ascending trendline we have marked on our daily chart seen below. Conversely a push above 1.4770 will force us to look at future resistance areas and will bring forward the current YTD high at 1.4967 as the main bullish target.

Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Wednesday’s Dec 12th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

Euro made a lower high today,trading within yesterday’s range and although it spiked above 1.4700 it found resistance at the round number and we are expecting to see downside pressure in the US session.

Cable retraced  after yesterday’s sharp fall but has found resistance at the 50.0 Fib line of the 2.0670/2.0180 down move.  Same as in EurUsd we  expect the US dollar to strengthen and push the pair lower, first target is the 2.0365 now turned into support and below that we have the 2.0300 round number.