Mon, 04th of August, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Friday the EURUSD attempted to continued it’s bearish momentum on a better than expected US NFP. The pair bottomed at 1.5515 but the bearish momentum seems limited as the pair made an upside correction and closed at 1.5564. Although I believe the US Dollar positive view is going to continue in days ahead, we might see another upside correctional movement today as the pair already oversold. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5610 followed by 1.5690. Initial support seen at 1.5515 (Friday’s low). CCI in oversold area on daily chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5520
• S2= 1.5476
• S3= 1.5437
• R1= 1.5603
• R2= 1.5642
• R3= 1.5686

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling suffered losses against Greenback on a better than expected US NFP. The pair bottomed at 1.9726 and closed at 1.9751. I am expecting this bearish momentum continue today. My model goes short targeting 1.9665. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.9790 followed by 1.9820. CCI just cross -100 line on daily chart, suggesting a potential bearish view.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.9704
• S2= 1.9658
• S3= 1.9590
• R1= 1.9818
• R2= 1.9886
• R3= 1.9932

USDJPY Outlook
The bearish momentum of USDJPY continued on Friday although the bearish power was less than I had expected. The pair only moved 62 pips, bottomed at 107.27 and closed at 107.67. My model remains mixed with downside bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 107.75. Initial support is seen at 107.27 (Friday’s low) followed by 106.50. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 107.33
• S2= 106.99
• S3= 106.71
• R1= 107.95
• R2= 108.23
• R3= 108.57

USDCHF Outlook
Friday, The Swiss Franc was traded lower against Greenback on a better than expected US NFP. The pair topped at 1.0516 and closed at 1.0495, but this bullish momentum also seems limited right now. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0516 (Friday’s low). Initial support at 1.0440. CCI in overbought area on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0464
• S2= 1.0433
• S3= 1.0407
• R1= 1.0521
• R2= 1.0547
• R3= 1.0578

Have a great day!

Friday, 01th of August, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the EURUSD attempted to go higher, topped at 1.5700 (50% area of Fibonacci retracement from 1.5343 to 1.6038), but fell sharply and closed at 1.5597. The market seem to still believe that the positive view on Greenback is not over yet. My model is mixed with neutral bias. We have a negative forecast on US NFP data today on the fundamental side (-75 K against previous – 62 K). If the actual number is the same or worse than the forecast, the EURUSD should be in the same direction with current technical view, that the pair is oversold and need an upside pullback. Immediate support is seen at 1.5520. Initial resistance at 1.5610. CCI in oversold area on daily chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5544
• S2= 1.5491
• S3= 1.5413
• R1= 1.5675
• R2= 1.5753
• R3= 1.5806

GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday the GBPUSD made a similar movement with EURUSD. The pair topped at 1.9929 and closed lower at 1.9833. My model remains mixed with downside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.9780. Initial resistance at 1.9845. Eyes on US NFP data today. CCI heading down towards -100 line on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.9765
• S2= 1.9698
• S3= 1.9616
• R1= 1.9914
• R2= 1.9996
• R3= 2.0063

USDJPY Outlook
The Japanese Yen was traded stronger against Greenback yesterday as the pair already overbought. The pair bottomed at 107.56 and closed at 107.84. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate support is seen at 107.65 followed by 107.25. CCI just cross 100 line down on daily chart, suggesting a potential bearish view. Eyes on US NFP data today.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 107.47
• S2= 107.11
• S3= 106.66
• R1= 108.28
• R2= 108.73
• R3= 109.09

USDCHF Outlook
Yesterday the USDCHF attempted to go lower, bottomed at 1.0402, but closed higher at 1.0475. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at  1.0440 followed by 1.0402. Eyes on US NFP data today. CCI in overbought area on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0419
• S2= 1.0364
• S3= 1.0326
• R1= 1.0512
• R2= 1.0550
• R3= 1.0605

Have a great weekend!

Today is the last day of the month so let’s see if we can gather some pips one last time

Firstly we have to focus on US GDP. A higher than expected GDP will certainly indicate a possible recession is on hold.

Currently we await Eurozone inflation figures in the form of the CPI. Consensus calls for a rise above 4% TO 4.10% which might cause the EUR to strengthen a bit. Any figure below 4% can send the EUR lower as well. Keep an eye on this one, it will be significant

Herewith the Probability Studies for Today:

EUR/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. The bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside, therefore the bullish probability. We have a no trade zone due to a series of resistances which must first be violated before we will have a suitable bullish trading condition. First of all, the 4HR Head and Shoulders’ neckline violation is still intact and this possible bullish move might just be a confirmation of the violation of that neckline at 1.5632. Also, the low we saw yesterday at 1.5521 is another pivot of the bullish Major Trend. Therefore we would watch this low closely should price approach it again

GBP/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Same as the EUR/USD. The bearish 60minute trend has been violated to the upside but price should be limited to the violated bullish Current Trend support (Now Resistance) anything from 1.9870 to 1.9900. So the next bullish cycle might just be the one which confirms the violation. Be careful with this one. Rather pop into the Live Trading Room today and ask me what is the latest situation on the Cable if you are unsure. A bounce on the violated bullish Current Trend support would give us a lower significant peak for a new adjusted bearish 60minute trend as well

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

Thu, 31th of July, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the EURUSD made indecisive movement by opened and closed at almost the same price (1.5585 and 1.5577). It seems like the bearish momentum is limited right now, but the Greenback seems to remain positive in days ahead. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.5520 (yesterday’s low). Initial resistance at 1.5630. CCI in overbought area on daily chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5527
• S2= 1.5477
• S3= 1.5433
• R1= 1.5621
• R2= 1.5665
• R3= 1.5715

GBPUSD Outlook
Yesterday the GBPUSD bottomed at 1.9744, 4 pips higher than my short target at 1.9740 before corrected higher and closed at 1.9814. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.9740. Initial resistance at 1.9845. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.9757
• S2= 1.9701
• S3= 1.9658
• R1= 1.9856
• R2= 1.9899
• R3= 1.9955

USDJPY Outlook
Yesterday the USDJPY didn’t make significant movement, opened and closed at almost the same price (108.14 and 108.05). My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 107.70. Initial resistance at 108.40. CCI in overbought area on daily chart, suggesting the bullish power might have exhausted right now.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 107.72
• S2= 107.39
• S3= 107.09
• R1= 108.35
• R2= 108.65
• R3= 108.98

USDCHF Outlook
Yesterday the USDCHF attempted to push higher, topped at 1.0520, but closed lower at 1.0482. The pair already in overbought area, so the bullish power might have exhausted right now. My model is mixed with neutral bias. Immediate support is seen at 1.0440. Initial resistance at 1.0540. CCI in overbought area on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0440
• S2= 1.0399
• S3= 1.0359
• R1= 1.0521
• R2= 1.0561
• R3= 1.0602

Have a great day!

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for July 30, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/30-july-eurusd-probability-study/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

Yesterday we saw history in the making on the EUR/USD. The Major Trend Support line has been violated and price is in the process of confirming that violation (1.5590)

See the attached Daily chart

The 4 hour chart indicates that a Head and Shoulders patttern’s neckline has been violated and that price can go all the way to below 1.5300. This serves as additional confirmation that the bullish Major Trend on the daily charts has in fact been violated

On the next 4 hour chart we can see that the bearish Current Trend (blue lines) which is the cycle within our Major Trend will eventually evolve into the new bearish Major Trend as lower significant peaks develop in time

The 1 hour chart shows where all three different cycles (Major, Current and 60) converge and should price bounce now on the violated Major Trend support - now Resistance - we will have a lower peak to identify a new, bearish 60minute trend as well

Intraday Probability Study for the EUR/USD:

Bearish trading condition. The hourly indicators are bearish, therefore the trading condition. Let’s hope we get a beautiful bearish trending market for the next couple of days!

See you in the LTR

Johan

Wed, 30th of July, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday I said that EURUSD need to stay consistently above 1.5750 area to keep the bullish momentum intact. The fact was the EURUSD failed to do so, only topped at 1.5757 before sharply fell and bottomed at 1.5552. Technically, this is a violation to the bullish outlook and give a positive view on US Dollar. My model is short, targeting 1.5460. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5630. CCI in oversold area on daily chart so we might have a minor upside pullback today.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5504
• S2= 1.5425
• S3= 1.5299
• R1= 1.5709
• R2= 1.5835
• R3= 1.5914

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling slumped against Greenback yesterday. The pair bottomed at 1.9760 and closed at 1.9799. I am expecting further downside scenario today. My model goes short targeting 1.9740. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.9845. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.9717
• S2= 1.9635
• S3= 1.9511
• R1= 1.9923
• R2= 2.0047
• R3= 2.0129

USDJPY Outlook
Like all other major currencies, the Japanese Yen slumped against Greenback yesterday. The USDJPY topped at 108.29 and closed at 108.15. My model is mixed with upside bias. We seem to have important resistance at 108.40 area. Immediate support is seen at 107.96 followed by 107.50. CCI in overbought area on daily chart, so a downside pullback might happen today.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 107.53
• S2= 106.92
• S3= 106.54
• R1= 108.52
• R2= 108.90
• R3= 109.51

USDCHF Outlook
The Swiss Franc also slumped against US Dollar yesterday. The pair topped at 1.0477 and closed at 1.0467. My model is mixed with neutral bias as the pair seems overbought right now. Immediate support is seen at 1.0400. Initial resistance at 1.0490. CCI in overbought area on daily chart.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0362
• S2= 1.0257
• S3= 1.0200
• R1= 1.0524
• R2= 1.0581
• R3= 1.0686

Have a great day!

Hi there fellow traders!

Herewith is my daily video recap for July 29, 2008, in which I discuss what happened on the market today, in our Live Forex Trading Room.

Today’s Probability Studies can be found on our blog right here:
http://blog.fxinstructor.com/29-july-probability-studies-interesting-dollar-index-observation/

To learn more about the Live Trading Room, please click here.

The dollar weakened/consolidated in the US session after the International Monetary Fund noted that “worsening” credit conditions may prolong the economic slowdown. So financials sold off again, taking everything else with it but it did not affect that dollar in such a bad way as what we are accustomed to, especially against the EUR.

So what is going on ? Is the Bucky still going to strengthen?

Think about it this way:

The credit crunch accompanied by the housing slump IS NOT LIMITED TO THE US ONLY. When the slump in the US is recognized as “less bad” than all other countries then we might change our skeptical view of the Greenback. I think that day is coming. Think about it for a while. Maybe the Fed really had a thought-out plan for recovery way before everyone else, anyone else..

Here is a 1-year chart of the Dollar Index and we can see the Bear trend for the last 12 months has been violated. The only issue I have with this scenario is that the Dollar Index is consolidating after the violation instead of defining higher peaks and troughs

If you have a comment or different opinion, please feel free to reply to this post

That said,  here is your Probability Studies for today:

EUR/USD - Bullish Trading Condition. The bullish 60minute trend is still intact although price is still around the 1.5750 level. We can also see moderate divergence - price consolidated while the Stochastic is bullish - but it does not change the direction of highest probability. Should the bullish 60minute trend be violated the bullish trading condition/probability would be no more

GBP/USD - No Trade Zone within a Bullish Probability. Price violated the intermediate bearish 60minute trend to the upside and that particular violation is now in the process of being confirmed (support at previous violated resistance) Should the 1 hour indicators confirm their bullish crosses, we will have a trading condition all the way up to the first bearish 60minute trend resistance at 1.9990/2.0000

To view a more in-depth analysis on the other pairs such as the AUD and CAD crosses, please visit our Live Trading Room at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr to see and hear our FXInstructors analyse the markets and identify trades

Tue, 29th of July, 2008
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)

EURUSD Outlook
Yesterday the Euro was traded stronger against Greenback, topped at 1.5767 and closed at 1.5738. My model is mixed with upside bias. Remember that the pair need to stay consistently above 1.5750 key level in order to gain more bullish momentum. Immediate support is seen at 1.5680. Initial resistance at 1.5797. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.5691
• S2= 1.5645
• S3= 1.5607
• R1= 1.5775
• R2= 1.5813
• R3= 1.5859

GBPUSD Outlook
The Sterling was traded stronger against Greenback yesterday, topped at 1.9962, but the pair keep making a lower high on daily chart. We still have a valid bearish channel on hourly chart. My model remains mixed with downside bias. Only a consistent movement above 2.0005 area could be a violation to the bearish scenario. Immediate support is seen at 1.9916 followed by 1.9868. CCI in neutral area on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.9868
• S2= 1.9793
• S3= 1.9746
• R1= 1.9990
• R2= 2.0037
• R3= 2.0112

USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY failed to maintain it’s bullish momentum yesterday. The pair bottomed at 107.34 and closed at 107.48. My model is mixed with downside bias. Immediate resistance is seen at 107.75. Initial support at 106.50. CCI just cross 100 line down on daily chart, suggesting potential bearish view.

USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 107.19
• S2= 106.90
• S3= 106.46
• R1= 107.92
• R2= 108.36
• R3= 108.65

USDCHF Outlook
The Swiss Franc was traded stronger against Greenback yesterday, but with less power than I had expected. My model remains short, targeting 1.0250. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.0350 followed by 1.0400. CCI just cross 100 line down on daily chart, suggesting a potential bearish view.

USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:

• S1= 1.0315
• S2= 1.0287
• S3= 1.0251
• R1= 1.0379
• R2= 1.0415
• R3= 1.0443

Have a great day!