eur

Don’t you miss volatility?

I Do miss Market Volatility! A volatile market for Currency Traders, would relate to a kid with candy, so much to do in so little time. The Adrenaline pumping, Calculating charts in a frenzy is much much better than staring at the charts not going anywhere. These few days is just like watching primary kids having a Table Tennis match, tedious and boring.
Market has been quiet this week, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD still trapped in a range market conditions. Momentum to break either way for them would probably happen today, with a barrage of data to be released today. (more…)

Further weakness in the dollar or that’s it?

Let’s Re-cap yesterday, Nothing much happened until Around the release of the ISM manufacturing Index From the US, Market was expecting a forecast of 48.0 from a previous of 50.7.

Right Before the data was released EUR/USD printed a new Historical High of 1.5275, when the actual Data shows up 48.3, still Weaker than the previous month but better than the actual forecast, Euro went right back to where it started.

Is this market’s way of thinking, “ Hey The economy is not that bad, yeah it’s slowing but not as bad as we thought” ? Maybe… but USD/JPY back to its 3 years low @102.60, still shows sign that Traders in the market are not willing to think that way.

Risk Aversion is There and will probably stay this week,with what I call the Rate week, we have 5 Major Central banks with their rate decision, Starting with the RBA in about 2 hours time. (more…)

Dollar slammed last week but recovered some ground on Friday.

The Dollar has recovered some lost ground against all Majors on Friday, profit taking has been blamed for the drop especially in Euro and AUD.
The drop in Dollar mid last week was hugely attributed to comments made by Fed Chairman Bernanke on his 2nd day testimony, in which he stated that smaller banks are most likely going to be affected with all the Economic concerns for the USA.

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Wednesday’s Jan 23rd midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd has retraced towards the middle point of yesterday’s range after finding resistance at the 1.4670 area, looking at last weeks chart we can see that around the mentioned level the pair formed a consolidation pattern, this indicates the importance of the former support turned into resistance zone. Without any more surprises we expect the pair to resume its down trend especially while we are trading below 1.4600.

GbpUsd failed to stay above 1.9600 and after forming a bearish divergence on the smaller timeframes we already saw a test of the 1.9500 support level, if this is breached we expect to retest yesterday’s low at 1.9330 on the way to the bigger bearish target of 1.9180.

EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd failed to print a new high on the weekly chart, it stopped just under the November 23rd high at 1.4966 at the resistance offered by the trendline that connects August and September 2007 swing lows. Breaking the weekly movement on a daily basis we see that Monday the pair pushed higher and although it made a new high on Tuesday after that we had a straight down move supported by a speech from an ECB banker and the fact the EurUsd was trading in an overbought area. The weekly low was made on Thursday at 1.4587 and after that we saw the bearish momentum slowing down and the pair closed just above 1.4600. We maintain our bearish bias for the following days with the mention that Monday is a holiday in the US and trading might be slow; perhaps the most important bearish target is December 20th low at 1.4300 which is also an important support level a place where bullish traders will want to use as a base for a repeat of December’s movement.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro printed a new high on Monday at 1.4915 just at the the up sloping trendline connecting August and September 2007 lows. The pair got in touching distance of the 1.4966 high and it still got a chance to get there in the next few days even if it doesn’t break decisively above the mentioned trendline. Forming a toppish pattern around the 2007 high or close to the 1.5000 psychological target will give bears a new opportunity to open shorts as we see the beginning of a bearish divergence on the higher timeframes. We didn’t expect the pair to move this high but after making a new high and showing some bullish momentum we are starting to look at what will happen if and when we will reach the 1.5000 level, like we said it’ll be a good place to short but there are already numerous voices in the markets that say it will go even higher.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Monday’s Jan 14th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd pushed higher and got above 1.4900 so far in today’s trading session and although at the moment is trading just a few points below that it has built up some bullish short term momentum, perhaps enough to make it to the 1.5000 zone in the next few days.

GbpUsd moved also higher, but with little momentum covering only 70 points from the Asian low to the early UK session high. Trading above 1.9600 is hard the pair having some tough resistance to break at 1.9650 which is also a former low from early this year and also is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.9830/1.9480 down move.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro opened the week trading lower and slowly slipped toward the 1.4600 support level but after failing to make a new low on Thursday, the day of the ECB interest rate announcement, at 1.4640 it pushed higher for the rest of that day and retested once again an important resistance trendline just above 1.4800. Trading on Friday was slow as the pair stayed contained inside a small range around the 1.4800 level. We have reached a point where bullish traders, the ones that have their sights set on 1.5000, fight with the ones that look at the USD strength and expect a move lower toward the December low at 1.4300. We, for the time being, maintain our rather bearish point of view and that is the following, as long as the the 1.4825 resistance holds we look for shorting opportunities, a break above that resistance will force us to start looking for a test of the 2007 1.4966 November high before reaching the 1.500 psychological target.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Tuesday’s Jan 8th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

Euro traded just below the 1.4700 level for the better part of today’s session in expectation of the ECB rate announcement. Unless we see a major surprise there, the pair is expected to continue its downside move towards the 1.4600 level and lower.

GbpUsd retraced to the 50 Fibonacci line of the 1.9760/1.9560 down move and after the BOe announced that it’s keeping interest rates at 5.50% the pair spiked up but we are seeing it resuming the downtrend; first target is this mornings low at 1.9535 before breaking below the 1.9500 round number.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro broke lower on Wednesday getting below 1.4700 and printed a low at 1.4640. The downside momentum is not that big but the pair is slowly heading lower as expected, next bearish target is the 1.4600 round level which coincides with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement line of the bigger move north from October’s 1.4000 low to November’s 1.4967 record high. Looking at the daily chart below we can spot clearly the next areas where eurUsd might found support and these are 1.4600 and 1.4500 both levels that have proven to be relevant to price action in the past.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

(more…)