Don’t you miss volatility?

I Do miss Market Volatility! A volatile market for Currency Traders, would relate to a kid with candy, so much to do in so little time. The Adrenaline pumping, Calculating charts in a frenzy is much much better than staring at the charts not going anywhere. These few days is just like watching primary kids having a Table Tennis match, tedious and boring.
Market has been quiet this week, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD still trapped in a range market conditions. Momentum to break either way for them would probably happen today, with a barrage of data to be released today. (more…)

Wednesday’s Jan 23rd midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd has retraced towards the middle point of yesterday’s range after finding resistance at the 1.4670 area, looking at last weeks chart we can see that around the mentioned level the pair formed a consolidation pattern, this indicates the importance of the former support turned into resistance zone. Without any more surprises we expect the pair to resume its down trend especially while we are trading below 1.4600.

GbpUsd failed to stay above 1.9600 and after forming a bearish divergence on the smaller timeframes we already saw a test of the 1.9500 support level, if this is breached we expect to retest yesterday’s low at 1.9330 on the way to the bigger bearish target of 1.9180.

EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd failed to print a new high on the weekly chart, it stopped just under the November 23rd high at 1.4966 at the resistance offered by the trendline that connects August and September 2007 swing lows. Breaking the weekly movement on a daily basis we see that Monday the pair pushed higher and although it made a new high on Tuesday after that we had a straight down move supported by a speech from an ECB banker and the fact the EurUsd was trading in an overbought area. The weekly low was made on Thursday at 1.4587 and after that we saw the bearish momentum slowing down and the pair closed just above 1.4600. We maintain our bearish bias for the following days with the mention that Monday is a holiday in the US and trading might be slow; perhaps the most important bearish target is December 20th low at 1.4300 which is also an important support level a place where bullish traders will want to use as a base for a repeat of December’s movement.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Monday’s Jan 14th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

EurUsd pushed higher and got above 1.4900 so far in today’s trading session and although at the moment is trading just a few points below that it has built up some bullish short term momentum, perhaps enough to make it to the 1.5000 zone in the next few days.

GbpUsd moved also higher, but with little momentum covering only 70 points from the Asian low to the early UK session high. Trading above 1.9600 is hard the pair having some tough resistance to break at 1.9650 which is also a former low from early this year and also is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.9830/1.9480 down move.

Tuesday’s Jan 8th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

Euro traded just below the 1.4700 level for the better part of today’s session in expectation of the ECB rate announcement. Unless we see a major surprise there, the pair is expected to continue its downside move towards the 1.4600 level and lower.

GbpUsd retraced to the 50 Fibonacci line of the 1.9760/1.9560 down move and after the BOe announced that it’s keeping interest rates at 5.50% the pair spiked up but we are seeing it resuming the downtrend; first target is this mornings low at 1.9535 before breaking below the 1.9500 round number.

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro formed an inside bar on Tuesday and until now, today’s price action has been contained inside yesterday’s as the pair covered only 40 points from low to high. The intermediary resistance at 1.4735 has so far proven to be a strong one and this is in line with our previous comments, that while we’re trading below 1.4750 we should look for possible short targets; moving under the 1.4700 round number should give us a more clearer bearish signal at least for short term. Conversely a push in the 1.4750-1.4800 area will get us closer to the trendline we have marked on our daily chart below and will force us to be more cautious about opening new shorts.

Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro confirmed our bearish expectations on Monday and moved below 1.4700 although the strength of the move wasn’t big we saw the pair print a low of 1.4655 before bouncing back up in today’s Asian session. As long as the 1.4750 level stays unchallenged we maintain our bearish bias and expect a continuation south, but if the pair starts to trade closer to the 1.4750-1.4800 resistance area we think that EurUSd will enter into a consolidation period and those are more of a continuation pattern than a reversal one, so the chances of going higher increase significantly.

Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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EUR/USD Technical View

Euro recovered in the last week of 2007 and got above 1.4700 where the pair traded in the past few days, and formed a hammer candle on the weekly chart(as seen below). While we are trading below Friday’s high at 1.4830 we maintain our bearish bias on this pair and expect a move lower aiming at first for the 1.4600 area as an intermediary target before the 1.4300 December low. EurUsd is trading in an overbought area close to a strong resistance level on the daily chart and this is one of the facts that makes us think the pair is going to go lower. Conversely a move above Friday’s high will certainly be a blow to shorts and perhaps shift focus towards the psychological target of 1.5000, a target we failed to reach in November.
Resistance Levels

• 1.5000– round number
• 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
• 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

• 1.4500- round number
• 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
• 1.4000 – Round number
• 1.3850 – July 24th High

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Thursday’s Jan 4th midday analysis -13.00 GMT

Euro traded just above the 1.4700 level for most of today’s session waiting for the NFP release, the par fas traded calmly getting closer and closer to the support level but not managing to break below as the upcoming are important and could change the mid term perspective.

GbpUsd failed to perform as expected, although it briefly got below 1.9700 the 9.30 GMT UK news helped pushed the pair for a new retest of the 1.9800 resistance and now we are trading roughly at the 50. Fib line of today’s 125 pont move; also the upcoming NFP release will have an impact on the pair and will determine the direction for the remainder of the session.