Hi everybody!

Today the AUDUSD presented an interesting bullish opportunity, we got a confirmation for a long and we are now looking for a buy@0.9050-0.9065 - let’s see if this trade comes into play later today.

Also, GBPJPY looks bearish short-term, with a possible target at 211-210.80 possibly supporting a new rally up with 214 as a main target (2 sets of double tops in the area).

USDCAD continues to look bearish, with repeated tests down at 0.9965 creating a downward slope favorable to the bears - but momentum still expected to build up to sustain a short trade. In standby for now…

Happy trading!

Riding the “Post-Interest Rate Decision” Rollercoasters

Hey guys, choppy market action today after yesterday’s interest rate decision - 0.5% cut and more cuts expected, so the headlines read: broad bearishness for the dollar. Which is why we focused on some short-term SHORT setups on EURUSD, GBPUSD At times like this when the market actors agree on a certain scenario (in our case the dollar falling), I’m thinking they will probably be right, but NOT RIGHT AWAY. Remember - the fundamentals are not what they appear…

EURCHF displayed an excellent shorting opportunity (a perfect wave formation backed up by divergences and trendline break) - we went in 1.6103 and closed the position during US session for 71 pips (the trade of the day).

We also took a short GBPJPY - low risk position for a large target - our 30 pips stop got hit by 2 pips and price rallied to our target just after that - better luck next time!

Also, took a short EURUSD on a retracement however the pair went up again in a 3rd test up and we got stopped out for -35.

Overall a positive day, however the effects of rollercoaster rides in the main currency pairs obviously didn’t help our technicals.

We also observed bullish scenarios in EURCAD and bearish on all yen pairs - it was only during US session that the yen started to gain some ground (after the US jobless claims report) .

Let’s see what tomorrow brings - I’m still bearish on EURUSD and GBPUSD, for as long as they don’t break the triple tops on the large charts, in which case I’m expecting a sharp rally up that would put an end to the current correction.

Hello everybody!

We started today’s London session with an careful look at GBPUSD and GBPJPY, where the overall sentiment seemed bullish at the time. With the EW picture suggesting both pairs possibly getting out of the minor correction down started on Friday and short-term technicals also confirming reversal (including 200MA signal on 15m) we went LONG on cable @1.9808 on a trendline break confirming a 1-2-3 setup. Stop was placed below the trednline @1.9758. Our target is the possible top of a 5 waves formation up at 1.9915 (where another pullback can be expected).

Also, GBPJPY seemed to continue the large retracement move started last week and so far we have a good support @209.61, a previous resistance and supp. As long as the pair is holding above this level, we are still on a bullish retracement scenario, with initial target @212.10, followed by 214.00 and 217.50.

EURUSD looked like trading in range, and we expect it to continue some range trading until the interest rate decision on Wednesday. No trades on this pair today.

USDCAD has confirmed already a bearish move on Friday, and we are looking for possible entries short.

See you tomorrow!

We started the London session today with a look at GBPUSD and AUDUSD, both pairs were displaying bullish formations (EW / 1-2-3 on several timeframes), with other technicals on 4h and 1D giving further hints of a possible rally up. We were able to identify 2 trading setups for GBPUSD, one of which confirmed later before the cable rally. Also, we identified a bullish setup in GBPJPY just before the breakout, however got stopped out for a few pips (5m and 1m entry, with low risk). EURUSD was perfectly flat at the time. We also analyzed a possible bearish setup on USDCAD based on range breakout and 200MA resistance on 15m (target 1.0140 already hit), but we did not take the position.

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on November 20, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Its not necessarily every day that we get into a trade, nor do we need to enter a trade every day. We also have our share of losses. But for us, as long as we don’t have any formed confirmations based on technicals, we don’t enter into at trade. We spend the entire day here in the Live Trading Room analyzing the trades and different currencies using different tools to determine which phase of the price movement we are in.

Case in point, EUR/USD - for a couple of days now we have been looking for a Triangle Formation breakout on the H4 charts. We can see that the breakout took place to the upside - but the most important part, more so than the trade itself, is that we - and our members - are prepared. No matter which direction the breakout takes place in, we are ready with fixed targets, based on certain principles of Fibonacci Expansions which we use for targeting our Triangle setups. (more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on November 7, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Out of intraday trade setups today, we traded just one. The Yen pairs were going crazy in the Asian session, and have been dropping like a stone. We managed to catch the GBP/JPY - and did not anticipate such a large move.

The Divergence was certainly there - a Bearish Divergence. We entered our Short trade based on our Fibonacci Fan levels, and price went far beyond the expected target levels. We did not ride the price all the way down, however. This trade was a good example in the room of the effectiveness of Fibonacci Fans in general, and how to use them. (more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on November 6, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

There was one intraday trade taken today which went off very well. I would like to concentrate on this trade today and the process which gave us the necessary confirmations to enter the market correctly.

It was a Yen pair on which we traded, but thats not how the trade started out. Lets have a look at the sort of correlations we were looking for.

We started off analyzing the EUR/USD. This pair has been in a bullish intraday phase, and we plotted some 1-2-3 Formations and applied our Fibonacci Expansions. Based on the Expansions, we knew that a certain level has yet to be satisfied. We were thus bullish on the EUR/USD, expecting it to go up. (more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 30, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

There were a couple of intraday trades today, which we will go over before following up on the long term trades which we are into up to now.

On the GBP/CHF  we identified a Bearish Divergence, which contributed to a Short trade, as pointed out by one of our members. The price made higher highs, stochastics made lower highs, and the lower high on the stochastic was quite below the overbought level of 80. This means the momentum has been decreasing in this rally of price which gave us the second high. This signifies a change of trend. This was a nice divergence, and we went in according to our divergence trading rules.

We plotted our Fibonacci Fans, and also used other fib projections to get our targets for a technically correct and profitable trade. (more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 29, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Mondays usually are slow days and we wait for the technicals to settle down before we think of following up with the last week’s trades or looking at intraday. But on Mondays we do look forward, as we get the technical setups for Gap Trading.

The gaps are not present on forex as much as other markets, as it is a continuous market, but on Mondays the market can open with a gap, and currencies will give you excellent setups. Gap trading techniques are very effective. Lets have a look at one of the currencies which gave us an excellent one today.

The NZD/USD gave us a gap, though not a very large one - usually the larger the gap, the larger the move. We wait for the market to come back down to fill the gap, and went in Short upon a Bearish Divergence, expecting the price to fill the gap, which it did. The gap turns into a kind of channel, and price found support at this level. A nice Short trade on the NZD/USD, without all that much effort, which is the main advantage of gap trading. (more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 25, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Lets start with one of the trades we were following since yesterday’s recap - the GBP/CHF on 30 min timeframe. The trigger was a Bearish Divergence. Price made higher highs, while stochastics were giving lower highs. We consider this an aggressive “Class A” divergence. The entry for this trade was determined by certain Fibonacci Retracements, and price did go down beyond our target of 2.3940.

We also use the Andrew’s Pitchfork in different ways to confirm the entry. In this case, the price broke through the midline of the APF, and came back to retest it as a resistance. This is another strong confirmation that a downtrend is in progress. In our room we do like to twist around the technical tools available to give us better results.

Lets go over an intraday trade we ended up taking today. The GBP/JPY, one of the most popular pairs in our room, had a Long trade, though the extent was not too large. As I always say, its the technique and methodology which is always more important than the result. (more…)