Awaiting Interest Rate Decisions

Hi everyone! As the market is awaiting the interest rate decisions on GBP and EUR, we focused during our London session on GBP-based pairs and EURUSD, trying to get a technical direction BEFORE the news announcement.

The picture does not really leave room for many options, apparently. Several indicators and wave formations point towards a possible support in GBPUSD and EURUSD, as well as GBPJPY, support levels that would stand at 1.9473, 1.4580 and 207.21 respectively. A clear break and close below these levels would indicate further down moves in these pairs, as new bearish formations would get confirmed.

To the upside, the EURUSD seems capable of retracing up to 1.47, 1.4750 and 1.4810 during the next sessions, a move confirmed by a close above 1.4670. Personally I lean towards this bullish possibility, as even further dollar gains would have to be sustained by an appropriate pullback before a possible rally down.

Also, on GBPUSD a move above 1.9605 would clearly tip the scales in favor of the bulls in short term, with a possible 1-2-3 formation triggering a long trade.

Looking forward for the interest rate decisions to see which of these scenarios will unfold.

We also examined the USDJPY charts, looking quite bullish on major timeframes - I am planning to take a long starting 106.85. Once this level is reached I would be using any pretext on a small timeframe to go long for a target of 108.20. Stop should be somewhere in the 106.30-106.40 area. Will keep you posted about the progress of this trade, if the entry gets triggered.

Happy trading today, and see you all tomorrow!

Ahead of the Fed Interest Rate Statement

Today our main point of focus is the Fed interest rate statement, a decision that is far from being clear at this point. The market is getting ready for some action tonight, and breakouts are highly possible in almost all currency pairs.

EURUSD and GBPUSD might get ready to take off on a nice rally (EURUSD heading up to 1.4820 at the time of this writing), however I’m still expecting the moves to cool off starting with the US session open and prices getting back in range. Technicals are pointing towards a possible retracement on the higher timeframes, however any down leg needs to be confirmed by the fundamentals, otherwise we are looking at a continuation up.

In the (for me unlikely) situation that the interest rate favors the dollar short-term, the move down in EURUSD and GBPUSD just after the news could be a good opportunity to re-enter long on the larger bullish trend on these pairs.