USD/CHF

Hi guys, I find CHF particularly bullish these days, and I’m already playing this with 2 lots short USDCHF and 1 lot short GBPCHF, both mid-term targets.

For USDCHF, here are my points of focus:

1) D1 resistance @1.1772 held, additionally forming a H&S pattern now. Pretty good resistance on W1 as well.
2) Repeated div. on D1, starting 23 jan to 20 feb. (several points)
3) on H4 first res @1.1741 was broken (signaling end of bullish run), then later retested @1.1772, re-enforcing this resistance.
4) key fib level of 78% of 1.1847 – 1.1742 was TOUCHED @ 1.1802, then H4 resistance held exactly @61.8 @1.1772, now the KEY level for the bears.
5) confirmation TD broken @1.1680 today: we should be on EW 3 of 5 of A (of a large D1 A-B-C correction targeting 50-61% of 1.1064 – 1.1883)
6) MA setup: strong bearishness coming up from the small TF (M15 up to H1), changing the H4 picture to bear mix at the time of this writing. This scenario signals a REVERSAL PATTERN on H4 (not a continuation, which would have been signalled from upside down).
7) EURCHF & GBPCHF display equally bearish mid-term pictures, which works in favor of the bear view. Also the USD pairs seem to try to find a bottom (EURUSD as far as I see is trying hard to bottom in mid-term as well).
elements of the trade: targets @1.1120, 1.0940 in mid-term (end-March, April). STOP area: 1.1775 – 1.1800.
Im taking this trade in the LTR – will post updates as the trade evolves.
Good luck!

Hello again,

At first glance the high volatility in some pairs at the end of last week should have given us some nice trading opportunities at the beginning of this week, however when we approached the charts there was no clear immediate trading setup we could follow.

On the JPY pairs the downtrend seems strong and most likely not complete, however short-term opportunities for LONG trades were there (signaled by trendline breaks and 1-2-3 setups on the larger EW outlook). EURUSD and GBPUSD seemed particularly confusing, with short confirmations not yet triggered but bullish momentum apparently weakening.

USDCHF and EURCHF seemed on the path of a retracement after the strong CHF rally recently (by the time of this writing USDCHF already confirmed the move up).

USDCAD remains in consolidation/retracement, with 200MA on 1h possibly providing short-term resistance.

Right now, looking for EURUSD to start a decline after the failure to sustain the rally above 1.5270 yesterday. USDCHF might follow the same path (up) if the CHF remains into consolidation in short-term, so these are the pairs likely to give interesting setups later in the day.

Will follow these setups in our Live Trading Room and look for trading opportunities.

Happy trading everyone!

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on November 6, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Mondays are usually slow days and today was no different – most of the currencies did not give us good technical setups. But I’d like to take this opportunity to discuss a particular strategy with you.

One of the strategies we teach at FX Instructor, called the GBP/USD Breakout Strategy, also known as the “Power Hour” strategy. We have refined this strategy and made it much more effective. This is a very powerful strategy, but there is one drawback – the rate of occurrence is relatively low. Maybe 3-7 times a month on average. However, when it does occur, the success ratio is astounding – we have the track record on our site if you want to have a look. (more…)

In the forex markets, it’s worth knowing the characteristics of the currency pairs, since each of them exhibit distinct identities.

Most of the currencies exhibit similar movement patterns, which can help a trader confirm price movements.

One such close relation can be found between the EUR/USD & USD/CHF.

The price movements of these two currency pairs are absolute mirror images.

In short, they have an inverse relationship: If EUR/USD is rallying, then USD/CHF should have downward movement, and vice-versa. (more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 22, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Today the markets opened the new week with gaps, and we concentrated today’s trading activites on trading the gap. There is a specific way we trade the gap, which works a lot of the time and gives us the direction of the trend, subsequent to the day.

On the NZD/USD, we had a Short trade which we were able to predict due to the gap strategy, going in right after the price broke out of the gap channel, for a good trade.

The AUD/USD had a similar situation, giving a good entry for a Short trade, though not taken. (more…)