Hello again everyone!

Today the EW picture was rather unclear, therefore we focused on mid-term setups awaiting better opportunities.

GBPUSD and GBPJPY benefited from a good fundamental support and rallied, GBP remains supported short-term with possibility of retracement at the end of NY session. We took a short based on EW, short-term trade: SELL@1.9586, stop@1.9630, target 1.9523.

Yen-based pairs are apparently continuing the short-term retracement up, we are looking for confirmations to buy USDJPY and GBPJPY during the next sessions.

Happy trading everybody!

Greetings everybody! A lot of interaction and good setups in the LTR today, overall many opportunities to look at.

We started with a look at the USDCAD, where since yesterday we’ve been waiting for a bearish signal (a TD break on 4h charts) - finally the TD resisted and we are still in consolidation at the time of this writing.

The AUDUSD presented a possible aggressive opportunity to buy for some large targets, but we decided to wait for the conservative entry (proved to be a good decision later, when Aussie dipped towards our projected stops) .

Today we focused our attention on the JPY pairs and started the day with a bullish perspective on all three majors - USDJPY, EURJPY, GBBJPY, an outlook that was later confirmed through different technical setups: Elliott Wave formations on several levels, divergence, trendlines, and finally a nice triangle on USDJPY that was broken while we were observing the pair.

We managed to jump right in on a USDJPY long @107.54, with a mid-term target of 109.18 and with a protective stop @106.95. The stop was later raised to breakeven during the NY session, therefore we are now enjoying a risk-free ride (at the time of this writing our trade has reached +70 pips, and counting) .
Will stay in the trade and possibly add to the position at a pullback towards 107.95.

Happy trading and see you tomorrow morning!

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 26, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Lets go over the long term things first which we’ve been following. On the GBP/USD, we were looking for a breakout on the daily timeframe from a Bullish Flag Formation. Price has been moving with lots of upwards momentum, and so far has remained above the mid channel of the flag. We were expecting a breakout this week, but it has not yet taken place. We have a penetration, but not a close.

On the intraday timeframes we did have an indication that today we might not get the close that we are looking for, because we had a Bullish 1-2-3 Formation. As I always say, “give me a 1-2-3 formation, and I can give you the targets”. We plotted Fibonacci Expansions to determine our targets, and price was rejected at the 127 level, so we do expect some retracement. Today is just not the day for the breakout. Lets see how it goes. Monday we do expect strong upmoves on the GBP/USD. (more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 25, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Lets start with one of the trades we were following since yesterday’s recap - the GBP/CHF on 30 min timeframe. The trigger was a Bearish Divergence. Price made higher highs, while stochastics were giving lower highs. We consider this an aggressive “Class A” divergence. The entry for this trade was determined by certain Fibonacci Retracements, and price did go down beyond our target of 2.3940.

We also use the Andrew’s Pitchfork in different ways to confirm the entry. In this case, the price broke through the midline of the APF, and came back to retest it as a resistance. This is another strong confirmation that a downtrend is in progress. In our room we do like to twist around the technical tools available to give us better results.

Lets go over an intraday trade we ended up taking today. The GBP/JPY, one of the most popular pairs in our room, had a Long trade, though the extent was not too large. As I always say, its the technique and methodology which is always more important than the result. (more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 23, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

No trades today, just observing the markets after the large moves of Monday’s open, and waiting for the currencies to recover and gain some technicals to let us enter into new trades.

Looking at the GBP/USD, the pair recovered - and the recovery was quite amazing, to say the least. After the large drop on Monday, it recovered almost the entire move, and while we were expecting a recovery, we did not expect quite so much of it. (more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 19, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Just one confirmed trade taken today, but a few interesting points for discussion. Fundamentals are beginning to affect the forex market on a longer term basis - yen crosses, carry trades, interest rates, etc. The Dow Jones is having an effect on the yen crosses, the equity markets getting correlated… All these things have to be kept in a deeper perspective.

But we are technical traders - as soon as we find a setup, and it confirms our technical analysis, we go into a trade. More often than not, this works. We look for higher probability trades, with a greater chance of success.

On the GBP/JPY intraday, one of the favorites among the carry trades, we had a technical pattern of a Bullish Divergence, with price making a low and a lower low, Stochastics making initial low below the 20 level. When your second lower low on the price takes place, your stochastics do not have the momentum to carry forward to the oversold zone. This is a very aggressive divergence, signifying that a change of trend is due and a significant reversal could take place. (more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 18, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

There were no trades taken today, as the market was really not conducive to any sort of situations we were comfortable trading in. Instead, lets follow up with some of our previous trades that were in the running.

Lets start with our long term USD/JPY, which has gone wrong for our trade. We had been Long on the daily timeframe, based on the breakout of a Triangle Formation. The price did give us a decent move initially, due to whatever fundamental factors were in place, but has since made a turnaround. It went down and took out our trade. (more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 17, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Good day today, with two nice trades taken in the room, both of which went quite well. More important than the profits is the method of the trade:

• How you analyzed the trade
• How you entered
• Where you exited
• How you determined your trading plan

All are very important to a trader’s success.
The GBP/JPY, which we call the “Formula-1 Race Car” of the currencies, had a Bullish Divergence spotted on the 30 min timeframe. The price was making a low and a lower low. The stochastics was making a low and a higher low. This is what we call an “aggressive” divergence - Class A. This means the first low was beneath the oversold level on the stochastics, but on the second low, it did not have the momentum to come below this level again. It suggests that the price has come down with a reducing momentum, which signifies a change of trend. (more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 16, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

As I have mentioned often - its not the trade that is important, it is the method, and the tools you use to analyze your trade. We have an agenda here in the Live Trading Room - to train our members to analyze the markets in the correct fashion. Once you can do that, you are well set on your way, and correct trades should follow.

Lets jump straight into the intraday activity of today’s session.

We have been following the USD/JPY at a longer timeframe, and having been Long on a swing trade, we still expect the price to go further up. Today on an intraday basis we had entered into a Short trade. When you have a trade which is against the main trend, but you have sufficient confirmations, there is no harm in taking it.

(more…)

This is a video summary of the Live Forex Trading Room session on October 15, 2007.

Today’s Summary, by Sunil Mangwani:

Today we had surprizingly large moves for a Monday. Mondays are typically quite slow, but today the market seems to have given us some good technical patterns which contributed to a trade.

Lets go over the AUD/USD first, on the 30 min charts. The pair opened with a gap, and we expect the price to come back to fill the gap. More importantly though, when the price bounced off the lower level of the gap, it went up to form a Bearish Divergence. We were waiting for this Bearish Divergence to be confirmed by the stochastics. We used fib projections on the upmove to get our 127% and 161.8% targets, which the price surpassed.

(more…)